Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 8:49 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

US 30Y Treasury yield at 5:00am ET?

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US 30Y Treasury yield at 5:00am ET?

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Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

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Single-Platform Markets(22)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	100%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.51% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	100%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.52% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	100%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.53% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	100%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.54% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	99%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.55% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	89%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.56% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	20%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.57% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.71% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.70% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.69% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.68% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.67% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.66% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.65% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.64% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.63% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.62% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.61% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.60% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.59% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%
Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.58% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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About This Event

Oct 13, 2026 at 5:00am ET If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above X at Oct 13, 2026 at 5:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes. Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US 30Y Treasury yield at 5:00am ET?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Oct 13, 2026 at 5:00am ET

If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above X at Oct 13, 2026 at 5:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes. Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.50% at Oct 13, 2026 at 5:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.51% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.52% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.53% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.54% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.55% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 89.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.56% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.71% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.70% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.69% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.68% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.67% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.66% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.65% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.64% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.63% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.62% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.61% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.60% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.59% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.58% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.57% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

US 30Y Treasury yield at 5:00am ET?

Volume$0.00

Markets22

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KALSHI

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.50% at Oct 13, 2026 at 5:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the

KALSHI

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.51% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.51% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.51% at Oct 13, 2026 at 5:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the

KALSHI

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.52% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.52% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.52% at Oct 13, 2026 at 5:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the

KALSHI

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.53% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.53% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.53% at Oct 13, 2026 at 5:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the

KALSHI

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.54% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.0¢No 1.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

CLOSING SOON

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.54% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

If the Pyth security yield for the 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond is above 5.54% at Oct 13, 2026 at 5:00am ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/G9Gnvv" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US 30Y Treasury yield at 5:00am ET?"></iframe>

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US 30Y Treasury yield at 5:00am ET?

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Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

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Events (1)

US 30Y Treasury yield at 5:00am ET?

Markets (22)

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.51% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.51% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.52% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.52% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.53% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.53% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.54% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.54% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

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Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

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US 30Y Treasury yield at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.51% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.51% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.52% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.52% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.53% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.53% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.54% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

Will the Pyth 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.54% on Oct 13 at 5:00am ET?

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