$1.19K
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$1.19K
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This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of
Prediction markets are currently pricing in significant uncertainty regarding Arctic sea ice recovery this winter. The leading contract on Polymarket, asking if the maximum extent will reach at least 15 million square kilometers, is trading at 40%. This price indicates the market sees a 40% probability of hitting that threshold, suggesting it is viewed as more likely than not to fall short. With thin liquidity of just $1,000 spread across related markets, this consensus is tentative but points toward expectations of another low maximum extent consistent with the long-term declining trend.
The primary factor suppressing odds is the relentless trend of Arctic amplification, where the region warms at more than twice the global average rate. The 2024 summer minimum was among the lowest on record, providing a reduced base of old, multi-year ice from which to grow. Second, recent scientific assessments, including from the NSIDC and IPCC, highlight increasingly frequent and intense winter warming events that can stall or reverse ice growth during key freezing periods. Historical data shows the winter maximum extent has declined at a rate of about 2.6% per decade since 1979, making a rebound to 15 million sq km, a level last consistently seen in the early 2000s, statistically challenging.
The key variable that could shift these odds upward is sustained and unusually cold atmospheric circulation patterns over the Arctic basin this winter. A strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, for instance, could trap cold air and accelerate ice growth. The market will closely watch NSIDC weekly updates from November through March. A consistently high growth rate in January or February 2026, the typical period for reaching the maximum, could cause a rapid repricing. Conversely, any major mid-winter warming event or storm that fractures the ice pack would likely drive the "No" probability even higher. The low liquidity means new capital or major climate news could move prices significantly before the April 1, 2026 resolution.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum Arctic sea ice extent during the winter of 2025-2026, specifically measured between November 20, 2025, and April 1, 2026. Arctic sea ice extent refers to the total area of the Arctic Ocean where at least 15% of the surface is covered by sea ice. The maximum extent typically occurs in late February or early March, marking the peak of the winter freeze before the annual melt season begins. The outcome will be determined by data published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), a leading scientific authority based at the University of Colorado Boulder. This market provides a quantified, crowd-sourced forecast for a key climate indicator that is closely monitored by scientists, policymakers, and industries affected by Arctic conditions. Interest in this specific metric stems from its role as a critical bellwether for the health of the Arctic climate system and global climate patterns. The winter maximum is a fundamental component of the Earth's albedo, reflecting sunlight and influencing global temperature regulation. Recent decades have shown a pronounced and accelerating decline in both the winter maximum and summer minimum extents, making each year's measurement a data point in a long-term trend with significant implications. Participants in this market are essentially betting on the severity of Arctic warming for the coming winter, synthesizing complex climatic factors like ocean temperatures, atmospheric circulation patterns, and anthropogenic forcing into a single numerical prediction.
Systematic satellite monitoring of Arctic sea ice began in 1979 with the launch of NASA's Nimbus-7 satellite, which carried the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR). This provided the first consistent, year-round record of ice extent. The historical data reveals high year-to-year variability but a clear, statistically significant downward trend in all months. The winter maximum extent, while declining at a slower rate than the summer minimum, has shown a persistent decrease. For example, the 1979-2000 average maximum extent was approximately 15.65 million square kilometers. In contrast, the decade from 2011 to 2020 saw an average maximum of about 14.77 million square kilometers, a reduction of nearly 900,000 square kilometers. The record low winter maximum occurred in 2017, at 14.42 million square kilometers, as reported by the NSIDC. This event was linked to unusually warm air temperatures across the Pacific and Atlantic sectors of the Arctic. Each year's maximum is influenced by a combination of long-term warming from greenhouse gas emissions and short-term weather patterns, such as the strength and position of low-pressure systems that can push ice around or bring warm air into the region. The long-term trend is unequivocally downward, with climate models consistently projecting a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer before mid-century, a state not seen in at least two million years.
The maximum Arctic sea ice extent is far more than a seasonal statistic. It is a fundamental component of the global climate system. The bright, white ice reflects a significant amount of solar radiation back into space, a process known as the albedo effect. A smaller maximum extent means more dark ocean water is exposed earlier in the spring, which absorbs more heat, accelerating regional warming and further melting ice in a powerful feedback loop. This Arctic amplification has repercussions far beyond the polar region, potentially weakening the jet stream and influencing extreme weather events in North America and Eurasia, such as prolonged cold spells or heatwaves. Economically, declining winter ice directly affects global shipping, as it lengthens the navigation season for trans-Arctic routes like the Northern Sea Route, while also opening new areas for resource extraction, leading to geopolitical competition. For indigenous communities across the Arctic, the timing and stability of the winter ice are critical for travel, hunting, and cultural practices, making its decline a direct threat to food security and traditional ways of life. The annual measurement is therefore a vital health check for the planet.
As of late 2024, the Arctic continues to experience profound warming, with sea ice following its long-term declining trend. The 2024 winter maximum, while not a record low, was well below the historical average. The summer minimum extent in September 2024 also ranked among the lowest on record. Ocean heat content in the Arctic remains high, and air temperatures continue to rise at roughly three times the global average rate, a phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification. These conditions set the stage for the 2025-2026 winter freeze-up. Scientists are closely monitoring factors like sea surface temperatures in the Barents and Chukchi Seas, which can inhibit ice growth, and atmospheric patterns such as the Arctic Oscillation, which will influence where the ice spreads. The latest scientific assessments, including the 2023 IPCC AR6 report, confirm the ongoing, rapid loss of Arctic sea ice across all seasons.
It is primarily measured using satellite-borne passive microwave radiometers. These instruments detect the microwave emissions from the Earth's surface, which differ significantly between open water and ice-covered ocean. The NSIDC uses a specific algorithm to calculate the total area where the ice concentration is at least 15%.
Sea ice extent counts any pixel of ocean with at least 15% ice cover as completely ice-covered, summing the total area of those pixels. Sea ice area accounts for the actual percentage of ice within each pixel, providing a slightly different, often smaller, total. Extent is the more commonly reported and standardized metric.
While the winter solstice in December has the least sunlight, the ocean retains heat from the summer and continues to lose it to the atmosphere throughout the winter. The air temperatures are often coldest in late winter, allowing ice to continue growing and expanding until increasing solar radiation in March finally halts the growth, leading to the maximum extent.
No. Climate is defined by long-term trends over decades, not single-year events. Individual years can have higher maxima due to favorable weather patterns, but these are temporary variations superimposed on the clear, persistent downward trend driven by global warming from greenhouse gas emissions.
The data is used by climate scientists for research and modeling, by operational forecasters for navigation and weather prediction, by policymakers for climate agreements and adaptation planning, by industries like shipping and oil and gas for risk assessment, and by indigenous communities for subsistence hunting and travel safety.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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7 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 40% |
| Poly | 17% |
| Poly | 14% |
| Poly | 10% |
| Poly | 8% |
| Poly | 8% |
| Poly | 7% |
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