Name: Highest temperature in Seoul on April 16?
End: 2026-04-16T12:00:00.000Z

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Highest temperature in Seoul on April 16? | PredictPedia

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Polymarket

markets · $167.53K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $167.53K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16?	Poly	42%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 16?	Poly	27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 16?	Poly	13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 16?	Poly	8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 16?	Poly	6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 16?	Poly	2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 16?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 16?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 16?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 16?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 16?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

42%

Top Probability

$167.53K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahr

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Seoul on April 16?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 16, 2026 (1 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.

To toggle between Fahr

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $169.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $108.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.56)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 16?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 16, 2026): Vol $19.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 16?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 16, 2026): Vol $14.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 16?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 16, 2026): Vol $13.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 16?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 16, 2026): Vol $16.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 16?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 16, 2026): Vol $20.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 16?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 16, 2026): Vol $15.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 16?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 16, 2026): Vol $14.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 16?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 16, 2026): Vol $12.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 16?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 16, 2026): Vol $6.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 16?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 16, 2026): Vol $8.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 16, 2026): Vol $26.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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