$822.63K
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85
$822.63K
2
85
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
2025-26 season If X wins the Pro basketball Sixth Man of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign Naz Reid a 32% probability of winning the 2025-26 NBA Sixth Man of the Year award. This price, translating to roughly a 1-in-3 chance, indicates the market views him as a serious contender but not the outright favorite. The leading contract among 85 related markets, this specific question has attracted over $823,000 in wagers, demonstrating significant trader interest and moderate liquidity. The market will resolve on June 30, 2026, or earlier if Reid clinches the award.
Reid's 32% price reflects his established role as one of the league's premier bench players. He finished third in voting for the 2023-24 award and is the cornerstone of the Minnesota Timberwolves' highly effective second unit. His ability to score efficiently from the perimeter and in the post, combined with his defensive versatility, makes him a prototypical modern Sixth Man candidate. The odds are tempered because the award is highly volatile, often influenced by narrative and team success, and faces perennial competition from high-usage guards on other teams.
The primary catalyst will be the early season performance of both Reid and his main competitors. If Reid maintains or increases his scoring output (14.0 PPG in '23-24) while the Timberwolves remain a top-tier Western Conference team, his odds will solidify. A key risk is the potential for a new, high-profile bench player, like a veteran star accepting a sixth-man role on a contender, to emerge and capture the narrative. Significant injuries in Minnesota's starting lineup that force Reid into a starting role would also invalidate his candidacy, causing this "No" contract to resolve early.
This is a cross-platform event tracked on both Polymarket and Kalshi. While the leading contract shows a consolidated 32% "Yes" probability, traders should monitor for arbitrage opportunities between platforms. Price discrepancies can occur due to differing user bases, liquidity pools, or platform-specific news sentiment. A meaningful spread would present a risk-free profit opportunity by buying "Yes" on the cheaper platform and selling it on the more expensive one. The high total volume suggests efficient price discovery, but temporary inefficiencies around major NBA news are common.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The prediction market topic 'Sixth Man of the Year Winner?' focuses on forecasting which professional basketball player will win the National Basketball Association's (NBA) Sixth Man of the Year Award for the 2025-26 season. This award is presented annually to the league's most valuable player for his team coming off the bench as a reserve, rather than as a starter. The market resolves to 'Yes' if a specific, predetermined player (denoted as 'X' in the market description) wins the award, with an early closure mechanism triggered immediately upon the official announcement of the award recipient. This creates a dynamic betting environment where traders can speculate on player performance, team strategy, and media voting trends up to a year in advance of the actual award ceremony. Interest in this market stems from basketball fans, sports bettors, and analytics enthusiasts who follow player development, team rotations, and the evolving role of high-scoring reserves in modern NBA offenses. The market's early close condition adds urgency, as positions are settled instantly upon the award's declaration, typically in April 2026, following the regular season. The 2025-26 season is particularly intriguing due to potential player movement in the 2025 free agency period, which could reshape candidate pools and create new frontrunners for the award.
The NBA's Sixth Man of the Year Award was first presented following the 1982-83 season, with Bobby Jones of the Philadelphia 76ers as its inaugural winner. The award was created to honor the growing importance of non-starters who provided significant contributions, a trend exemplified by the 'Boston Celtics' bench units of the 1960s and the Washington Bullets' Kevin Grevey in the late 1970s. For its first 25 years, the award typically favored scoring guards and forwards, with players like Ricky Pierce (1987, 1990) and Detlef Schrempf (1991, 1992) winning multiple times. The criteria have evolved, with media voters (a panel of sportswriters and broadcasters) increasingly considering impact on team success, not just raw statistics. A significant shift occurred when Manu Ginobili, a future Hall of Famer, won in 2008, highlighting that star-caliber players could embrace the sixth man role for championship teams. The 2010s saw the rise of 'instant offense' specialists like Jamal Crawford, who won a record-tying three awards (2010, 2014, 2016), and Lou Williams, who also won three times (2015, 2018, 2019). More recently, the award has recognized versatile players who contribute across multiple statistical categories, such as Tyler Herro in 2022, who averaged 20.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists for the Miami Heat. The historical precedent shows that winners almost exclusively come from teams with winning records, with only a handful of exceptions in the award's four-decade history.
The Sixth Man of the Year Award matters because it reflects a fundamental strategic evolution in professional basketball. The modern NBA game, with its emphasis on pace, spacing, and sustained offensive pressure, has elevated the importance of having elite talent ready to enter the game without a drop in production. Winning the award can significantly impact a player's career trajectory and financial earnings, often leading to more prominent roles, starting positions, or lucrative contract extensions in subsequent seasons. For example, Tyler Herro's 2022 win was followed by a four-year, $130 million contract extension with the Miami Heat. Beyond individual careers, the award highlights team-building philosophy. A strong sixth man is often the hallmark of a deep, well-constructed roster capable of contending for a championship. It signals to fans and analysts that a team has the luxury of bringing a star-level performer off the bench, a strategic advantage in managing player workloads and exploiting matchup weaknesses throughout a grueling 82-game season. The prediction market on the award winner taps into broader discussions about player value, roster construction, and the analytics of bench production, making it a proxy for evaluating team depth and front office success.
As of the lead-up to the 2025-26 season, the landscape for the Sixth Man of the Year Award is in a state of anticipation. The 2024-25 NBA season is ongoing, and its outcomes will directly shape the candidate pool for the following year. Player performances, injuries, and team standings during the 2024-25 campaign will establish the early frontrunners. Furthermore, the summer of 2025 will feature a major free agency period and potential trades that could dramatically alter team rosters and roles. A key player like Malik Monk, the reigning winner, is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent in 2025, meaning his next contract and team will significantly affect his candidacy. Prediction markets for the 2025-26 award are likely to open with provisional odds after the conclusion of the 2024-25 season and the draft, with odds shifting throughout the summer based on free agent signings and preseason projections.
The award is given to the league's best performing player coming off the bench in a majority of his team's games. There is no official minimum games played or minutes requirement, but voters overwhelmingly favor players who have made a significant impact over a full season for a team with a winning record. The winner is selected by a panel of sportswriters and broadcasters from the United States and Canada.
No player has ever won both the Sixth Man of the Year and the Most Valuable Player award in the same season. By definition, the Sixth Man award honors a reserve player, while the MVP has always been awarded to a full-time starter. Bill Walton is the only player to have won both awards in his career, but in separate seasons (MVP in 1978, Sixth Man in 1986).
A global panel of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters submits a ballot with their first, second, and third place choices. A first-place vote is worth 5 points, second place is 3 points, and third place is 1 point. The player with the highest cumulative point total wins the award. The results, including the full voting breakdown, are made public by the NBA.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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57 markets tracked
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| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
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2025-26 season If X wins the Pro basketball Sixth Man of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Sixth Man of the Year. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Sixth Man of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Naz Reid wins the Pro basketball Sixth Man of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Sixth Man of the Year. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Sixth Man of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official informa
If Keldon Johnson wins the Pro basketball Sixth Man of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Sixth Man of the Year. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Sixth Man of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official informa
If Obi Toppin wins the Pro basketball Sixth Man of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Sixth Man of the Year. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Sixth Man of the Year, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official informa
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