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Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?

Name: Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$73.58K

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Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?

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Polymarket

markets · $73.58K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $73.58K

100%

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1 market tracked

Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?	Poly	28%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? 
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (166 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formall

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or or"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $73.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $667
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 110.29)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? 
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $73.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

165d 15h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

28¢

Polymarket

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Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?

Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?

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Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?

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Events (1)