Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?

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$1.99K

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How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?

Vol

$1.99K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.99K

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $1.99K

100%

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4 markets tracked

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	36%
Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	17%
Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	8%
Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 4 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

36%

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$1.99K

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About This Event

in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least X in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. X candidate is considered unaffiliated with a political party if the relevant election authority identifies the candidate as Independent, Nonpartisan, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, Unaffiliated, by petition w

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress

If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least X in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. X candidate is considered unaffiliated with a political party if the relevant election authority identifies the candidate as Independent, Nonpartisan, No Party Preference, No Party Affiliation, Unaffiliated, by petition w

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least 4 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A candidate is considered unaffiliated with a political party if the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 4 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 3, 2027): Vol $178
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?

Volume$1.99K

Markets4

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KALSHI

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 36.0¢No 64.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A candidate is considered unaffiliated with a political party if the

KALSHI

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.0¢No 83.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A candidate is considered unaffiliated with a political party if the

KALSHI

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A candidate is considered unaffiliated with a political party if the

KALSHI

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 4 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 4 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least 4 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A candidate is considered unaffiliated with a political party if the

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How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?

How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?

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Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

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Events (1)

How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?

Markets (4)

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 4 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 4 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

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Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 2 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 3 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 4 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

Will the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats be at least 4 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress?

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