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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?

Name: Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$84.39K

Events

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Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?

Vol

$84.39K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $84.39K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $84.39K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?	Poly	21%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31?	Poly	19%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by April 30?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

21%

Top Probability

$84.39K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dobropillia by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Dobropillia is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dobropillia by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of Dobropillia is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dobropillia by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

This market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08), which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $28.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.06)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Russia enter Dobropillia by April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $113
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $225
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?

Volume$84.39K

Markets3

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POLYMARKET

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 21.0¢No 79.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dobropillia by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08), which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will

POLYMARKET

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dobropillia by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08), which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will n

POLYMARKET

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by April 30?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by April 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dobropillia by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08), which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will

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Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?

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Events (1)

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?

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Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31?

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31?

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by April 30?

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by April 30?

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Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?

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Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31?

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by May 31?

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by April 30?

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by April 30?

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