GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIClimate and Weather

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026?

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$0.00

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Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026?

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

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7 markets tracked

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inch)

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inch)	Kalshi	2%
Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 2 inches)	Kalshi	2%
Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 7 inches)	Kalshi	1%
Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 6 inches)	Kalshi	1%
Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 5 inches)	Kalshi	1%
Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 4 inches)	Kalshi	1%
Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 3 inches)	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

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About This Event

In Jul 2026 If the total precipitation at CLISFO in San Francisco in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than X inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their repor

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026?
**Category:** Climate and Weather | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In Jul 2026

If the total precipitation at CLISFO in San Francisco in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than X inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date, keeping in mind that different cities update their repor

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the total precipitation at CLISFO in San Francisco in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 7 inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, an"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 7 inches)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 6 inches)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 5 inches)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 4 inches)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 3 inches)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 2 inches)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inch)
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIClimate and Weather

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets7

7 of 7

Sort:

KALSHI

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inch)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.0¢No 98.0¢

KALSHITech

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inch)

If the total precipitation at CLISFO in San Francisco in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 1 inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, an

KALSHI

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 2 inches)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHITech

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 2 inches)

If the total precipitation at CLISFO in San Francisco in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 2 inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, an

KALSHI

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 7 inches)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHITech

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 7 inches)

If the total precipitation at CLISFO in San Francisco in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 7 inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, an

KALSHI

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 6 inches)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHITech

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 6 inches)

If the total precipitation at CLISFO in San Francisco in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 6 inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, an

KALSHI

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 5 inches)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHITech

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 5 inches)

If the total precipitation at CLISFO in San Francisco in Jul 2026 is strictly greater than 5 inches, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, an

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Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inch)

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Events (1)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026?

Markets (7)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inch)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inch)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 2 inches)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 2 inches)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 7 inches)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 7 inches)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 6 inches)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 6 inches)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 5 inches)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 5 inches)

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Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inch)

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Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026?

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inch)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 1 inch)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 2 inches)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 2 inches)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 7 inches)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 7 inches)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 6 inches)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 6 inches)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 5 inches)

Rain in San Francisco in Jul 2026? (Above 5 inches)

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