Colorado Senate Election Margin of Victory
PM $10.6K
1
8
Colorado Senate Election Margin of Victory
PM $10.6K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Hickenlooper 30%+ at 27.5%.
Polymarket
- Hickenlooper 30%+27.5%
- Hickenlooper 25-30%22%
- Hickenlooper 20-25%19%
- Hickenlooper 15-20%17%
- Hickenlooper 5-10%9.7%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $10.6K
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 Colorado Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Colorado Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event defines the outcome as the margin of victory in the 2026 Colorado Senate election, meaning "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Only the Democratic and Republican nominees count as options, and independent candidates do not represent either party [1]. Resolution uses the official vote count once it is certified, with the state electoral authority as the primary source [1]. If a reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
The rules say the election "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. That is a description within the contract, not an announced event date. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z, and they were retrieved at 2026-10-17T06:21:34.818Z [1]. They describe that moment only. They are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The sample contains eight markets from one provider event, and all saved markets for that event are included [1]. Among the Democratic margin brackets, the Yes prices run from 0.0375 for a 0% to 5% margin to 0.245 for a margin of 30% or more [1]. These are separate contracts. Their prices should not be summed or averaged into one estimate.
The Republican market asks a different question, whether the Republican candidate wins, and lists Yes at 0.031 [1]. It is not the same outcome as a margin bracket and should not be compared with them as if it were.
The review does not include volume data, so these prices cannot indicate liquidity or how many traders are involved.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are where they are, and it contains no news, polling, or trader information. The sample warning states that all saved markets are included but that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. The contract also notes that a nominee replaced before election day would be reflected in the market [1]. This assessment relies on a single provider source, so differences in wording or close times on other platforms cannot be assessed here.
References
- Polymarket: Colorado Senate Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract concerns the margin of victory in the 2026 United States Senate election in Colorado, which is expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1][2]. The contract is not a simple winner-take-all question. It asks how far apart the first-place and second-place candidates finish. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the top two candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The market is organized into brackets. Each bracket asks whether the Democratic Party candidate will win by a stated range, such as 0% to 5% or 25% to 30%, and a separate contract asks whether the Republican Party candidate will win [1]. The source states that if a reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. The contract also defines which candidates count. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not represent either option [1]. Named candidates are included for the convenience of traders. If a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. The current public background is limited to the race itself. Democratic incumbent John Hickenlooper is seeking a second term, and he is being challenged by Republican state senator Mark Baisley, according to the Wikipedia article on the race [2]. That article is a background reference and does not establish what has happened in the campaign on any given day.
Historical Context
The 2020 United States Senate elections were held on November 3, 2020, with 33 class 2 seats contested. The winners of those seats were elected to six-year terms running from January 3, 2021, to January 3, 2027 [3]. That cycle explains why the 2026 contest concerns a seat up for election at the end of that term, but the supplied background does not describe the Colorado race's earlier results.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the size of the winning margin, not only which party wins. Because the brackets cover narrow and wide ranges, the market is about how decisively the race is decided. The resolution source is the official results of the 2026 Colorado Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying results, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The saved snapshot shows prices for eight contracts in this event, including seven Democratic margin brackets and one Republican win contract [1]. Those prices are snapshots and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the election this contract covers expected to take place?
The 2026 Colorado Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1][2]. The contract's listed end time is November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC [1].
Which results determine how the contract resolves?
The market resolves according to the margin between the top two candidates once the vote count is official. The primary resolution source is the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
What happens if two candidates tie for the most votes?
If the tie is between two listed candidates, the market resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, it resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, it resolves to "Other" [1].
What happens if a recount is started?
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market remains open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
What happens if the results are not known by the deadline?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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