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South Dakota Senate margin of victory

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South Dakota Senate margin of victory

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Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 15 percentage points?

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Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 15 percentage points?	Kalshi	82%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 17 percentage points?	Kalshi	76%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 19 percentage points?	Kalshi	69%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 21 percentage points?	Kalshi	63%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 23 percentage points?	Kalshi	56%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 25 percentage points?	Kalshi	50%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 27 percentage points?	Kalshi	43%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 29 percentage points?	Kalshi	37%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 31 percentage points?	Kalshi	31%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 33 percentage points?	Kalshi	23%
Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 35 percentage points?	Kalshi	19%

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About This Event

On November 3, 2026 If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Dakota by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishe

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** South Dakota Senate margin of victory
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On November 3, 2026

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Dakota by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishe

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Dakota by 35 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Rep"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 35 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 33 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 31 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 29 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 27 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 25 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 23 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 56.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 21 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 63.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 19 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 69.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 17 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 76.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 15 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 82.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
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**Constraints:**
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KALSHIElections

South Dakota Senate margin of victory

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 15 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.0¢No 18.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 15 percentage points?

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Dakota by 15 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Rep

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 17 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 76.0¢No 24.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 17 percentage points?

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Dakota by 17 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Rep

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 19 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 69.0¢No 31.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 19 percentage points?

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Dakota by 19 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Rep

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 21 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 63.0¢No 37.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 21 percentage points?

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Dakota by 21 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Rep

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 23 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 56.0¢No 44.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 23 percentage points?

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Dakota by 23 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Rep

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South Dakota Senate margin of victory

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Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 15 percentage points?

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Events (1)

South Dakota Senate margin of victory

Markets (11)

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 15 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 15 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 17 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 17 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 19 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 19 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 21 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 21 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 23 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 23 percentage points?

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Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 15 percentage points?

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South Dakota Senate margin of victory

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 15 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 15 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 17 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 17 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 19 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 19 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 21 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 21 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 23 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in South Dakota be at least 23 percentage points?

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