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Alaska Senate primary: Dan J. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)

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Alaska Senate primary: Dan J. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)

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Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 0.1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 0.1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?	Kalshi	93%
Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?	Kalshi	83%
Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?	Kalshi	43%
Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?	Kalshi	18%

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93%

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About This Event

Vote Percent - Dan J. Sullivan If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan J. Sullivan in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are inclu

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Alaska Senate primary: Dan J. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Vote Percent - Dan J. Sullivan

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan J. Sullivan in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are inclu

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan J. Sullivan in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary is 5% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 0.1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 82.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Alaska Senate primary: Dan J. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)

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KALSHI

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 0.1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 0.1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan J. Sullivan in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary is 0.1% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified pers

KALSHI

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.5¢No 17.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan J. Sullivan in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary is 1% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person

KALSHI

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 42.5¢No 57.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan J. Sullivan in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary is 3% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person

KALSHI

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan J. Sullivan in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary is 5% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/GKw2-i" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Alaska Senate primary: Dan J. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)"></iframe>

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Alaska Senate primary: Dan J. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)

Alaska Senate primary: Dan J. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)

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Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 0.1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

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Events (1)

Alaska Senate primary: Dan J. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)

Markets (4)

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 0.1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 0.1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

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Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 0.1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Alaska Senate primary: Dan J. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 0.1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 0.1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

Will Dan J. Sullivan receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate primary?

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