Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary market from Polymarket, titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET" [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the source states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a different Bitcoin market should check whether that market uses the same data stream, the same averaging method, and the same measurement window.
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T06:40:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's closing time, not a resolution time. The evidence does not record when or whether the contract has resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z, and the application retrieved the source at 2026-10-19T09:36:33.084Z [1]. The prices below describe that observation only:
- Up: 0.505
- Down: 0.495
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two outcomes sum to 1.000 in this snapshot. The evidence contains no bid, ask, depth, or volume data, so it cannot show how easily either side could be traded at these prices.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, and it is complete: the coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. The saved status is "active" [1]. Because the snapshot was taken at 09:00 UTC on October 19, it should not be read as the current price.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are where they are. It also does not show trader counts, recent Bitcoin price history, or any development that might affect the window. The sample does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for this kind of event, though this particular event has only the two outcomes shown.
Prices on a different contract, even one with a similar title, should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity unless their rules, data sources, windows, and close times match.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-window price question about Bitcoin. Its title, "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET", names a five-minute range, and the rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range" [1]. If the average over the window is below the starting price, the contract resolves to "Down" [1]. Because the comparison uses greater than or equal to, a tie at the reference point also resolves to "Up" [1]. The contract is tied to one specific data feed rather than to general market prices. The stated resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules also say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader should therefore treat the outcome as defined by that stream alone, even if other exchanges or indexes show different Bitcoin prices during the same minutes. The listed end time in the source is 2026-10-20T06:40:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is the contract's closing time under its rules, not an announced event. The source's observation and retrieval times are recorded separately in this article's snapshot, and the rules describe how the contract is defined rather than what the price is at any given moment.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink BTC/USD time-weighted average price over the named five-minute window ends at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the outcome depends on a single data stream and a fixed window, the contract isolates a short-term directional question rather than a broader view of Bitcoin's price. Readers should keep in mind that the rules define the resolution mechanism, and the source does not say how the stream behaves outside its documented definition.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an Up outcome mean for this contract?
An Up outcome means the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the 2:35AM to 2:40AM ET window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
Which price source decides the result?
The result is decided by Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say other sources or spot markets are not used for resolution [1].
Does a tie count as Up or Down?
A tie counts as Up, because the rules resolve to Up when the average is greater than or equal to the starting price [1].
When does the contract close?
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T06:40:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's closing time under its listed rules.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.