Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket event titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET" [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The source names a specific data stream and states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Readers comparing this with other Bitcoin price contracts should check the resolution source and the averaging method, since a contract tied to a spot price or a different window would measure something different.
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T06:35:00.000Z [1]. The title expresses the window in ET, while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers should confirm how the two correspond before comparing timing with any other contract.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation is dated 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T09:39:13.396Z [1]. These are the only times in the evidence, so the prices below describe that observation and should not be read as live quotes.
At observation, the "Up" outcome was priced at 0.505 and the "Down" outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The market was listed as active at observation [1]. The sample covers one market from one provider event, and the coverage record shows all one market was included with no partial sample [1]. Because this is a single binary contract, no other outcomes are omitted from this sample, but the provider does not establish that it lists every possible outcome for the real-world question.
The volume field is not part of the evidence used here, and nothing in the supplied material describes trader counts or liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices took their current values, and it contains no news, trading activity, or other context. It also does not show the price at any time after the observation. The actual result depends on the Chainlink TWAP over the stated window, which the evidence does not report. Until resolution, the contract's outcome is unknown, and the snapshot should be treated as a record of one moment only.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-interval Bitcoin market titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET." It is a binary contract in the crypto category that asks whether Bitcoin's price will rise or fall over one five-minute window. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over that window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of the window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The price used for resolution is not a single trade or a spot quote. The resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream published by Chainlink, which averages the price across the time range named in the title [1]. Because the average is taken over the whole window, the closing value can differ from the price at the moment the window ends. The contract rules also state that the market concerns the Chainlink data stream for the BTC/USD pair and not other sources or spot markets [1]. The provider lists the market as active, with an end time of 2026-10-20T06:35:00Z [1]. That end time is a contract closing time from the rules. It is not an announced event or a confirmed resolution, and the market had not resolved at the time of the provider observation. The observation was recorded at 2026-10-19T09:00:05Z and retrieved at 09:39:13Z on the same day [1]. Readers should treat the status and price information as a dated snapshot rather than a live reading. The sample for this entry contains a single market from one provider event, so no other outcomes or contracts are compared here.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over a very short, fixed window as recorded by one named data stream. Because the rule compares the time-weighted average over the window with the price at the window's start, the outcome depends on the averaged path of the price rather than on a single moment [1]. The rules also specify that only the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP stream counts, so movements on other exchanges or spot markets do not determine the result [1]. Anyone reading the contract should therefore focus on the stated data source and the window definition, not on general Bitcoin price news.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the contract mean by "Up"?
According to the rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink TWAP of Bitcoin over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What is the TWAP in this market?
The TWAP is the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin generated by Chainlink over the time range in the market title, as described in the resolution rules [1].
Do prices on other exchanges affect the result?
No. The rules state that the market is about the price in the Chainlink TWAP data stream for BTC/USD, not any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does this market close?
The provider lists the end time as 2026-10-20T06:35:00Z [1]. This is the listed closing time in the contract data, and it does not confirm how or when the market will be resolved.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.