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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Name: Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$16.71M

Events

Markets

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Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Vol

$16.71M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $16.71M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $16.71M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Poly	14%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Poly	6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

14%

Top Probability

$16.71M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, August 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or n"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.52M
* **Total Liquidity:** $352.3K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 15.68)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $3.59M
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.14M
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $798.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Volume$16.71M

Markets3

3 of 3

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

POLYMARKETWorld

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether

POLYMARKET

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

POLYMARKETWorld

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

POLYMARKET

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 1.8¢No 98.2¢

POLYMARKETWorld

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or n

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7¢

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Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

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Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Markets (3)

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?

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Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?

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