Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Name: Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$423.89K

Events

Markets

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Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

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Polymarket

markets · $423.89K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $423.89K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$423.89K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (166 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or n"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $261.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $41.4K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 6.31)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $261.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

165d 16h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

5¢

Polymarket

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/GOWxjX" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?"></iframe>

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Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

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Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)