Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (4/13 - 4/19) | PredictPedia

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

10

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
10	Kalshi	98%
20	Kalshi	97%
30	Kalshi	92%
40	Kalshi	72%
50	Kalshi	48%
60	Kalshi	28%
70	Kalshi	18%
80	Kalshi	8%
90	Kalshi	7%
100	Kalshi	6%
150	Kalshi	3%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (4/13 - 4/19)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** from Apr 13, 2026 to Apr 19, 2026

If number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above X from Apr 13, 2026 to Apr 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Apr 13, 2026 to Apr 19, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 90 from Apr 13, 2026 to Apr 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Apr 13, 2026 to Apr 19, 2026. The market will resolve no earl"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. 90
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. 80
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. 70
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. 60
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. 50
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. 40
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. 30
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. 20
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. 150
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. 100
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. 10
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

43¢

Kalshi

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Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (4/13 - 4/19)

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