
Highest temperature in Munich on October 27?
PM $49.0K
1
11
Highest temperature in Munich on October 27?

PM $49.0K
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 16°C at 99.5%.
Polymarket
- 16°C99.5%
- 18°C0.3%
- 9°C or below<0.1%
- 10°C<0.1%
- 11°C<0.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $49.0K
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Munich Airport (EDDM) on 27 Oct '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Munich Airport (EDDM) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. An observation that reports no temperature in either place is disregarded. Each market in this event states its range in whole degrees Celsius. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with a value ending in exactly half rounded up to the next higher whole degree, and that whole Celsius value determines which range contains it. For example, 13.9°C counts as 14°C; 17.4°C counts as 17°C; 16.5°C counts as 17°C; −1.7°C counts as −2°C; −8.5°C counts as −8°C. An observation counts if its time stamp, converted to the station's local time (including any daylight-saving shift in effect), falls on the observation date. This market will resolve at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. Resolution is determined from the observations the resolution source shows for the observation date. In the event that the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that neither source has published data sufficient to determine a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR). Changes to observations within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. Where the first routine observation for the following date is published before that deadline, resolution is determined from a read taken after it. Where it is not, resolution is determined from a read taken at that deadline. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be the routine observations for Munich Airport (EDDM) published here: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=EDDM&format=raw&date=2026-10-28T02:00:00Z&hours=30
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks which temperature range contains the highest temperature reported at Munich Airport (EDDM) on 27 October 2026 [1]. The qualifying value comes from routine METAR observations, and reports beginning with SPECI do not count [1]. The hourly temperature remark is used when present, and the value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with exact halves rounded up [1]. If a routine observation lacks that remark, the temperature group in the observation body applies instead, in whole degrees [1].
The rules state that resolution occurs "at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first" [1]. If the primary source lacks data, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is the fallback, and the market resolves to the lowest bracket if neither source has sufficient data [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z and retrieved at 2026-10-27T12:59:09.715Z [1]. It is a stored record, not a live quote. In it, the 17°C market shows Yes at 0.54 and the 16°C market shows Yes at 0.44. The 18°C market shows Yes at 0.031, the "19 or higher" market at 0.001, and the remaining brackets at 0.0005 or lower [1].
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The Yes prices across these brackets sum to slightly more than one, so they should not be read as a complete probability distribution.
The listed end time is 2026-10-27T12:00:00.000Z, and the status is "active" [1]. That timestamp differs from the resolution timing described in the rules, which refer to the day after the observation date [1]. The evidence does not explain this difference, so readers should rely on the rule text for resolution timing.
What remains uncertain
The sample includes all 11 saved markets for this single Polymarket event, but the source notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. No other platform is included, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The snapshot does not show current temperature readings, later observations, or trading volume. The rules also allow up to seven calendar days for correction if published data is found to be clearly erroneous [1]. The evidence does not show a final resolution.
References
- Polymarket: Highest temperature in Munich on October 27?. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia contract asks which temperature bracket will contain the highest temperature reported at Munich Airport (EDDM) on October 27, 2026. The rules say the qualifying value comes from routine METAR observations for that station and date, not from special observations, which are labeled SPECI and do not count [1]. The market uses the hourly temperature remark in each routine report when one is present. If that remark is missing, the whole-degree temperature group in the body of the observation is used instead [1]. Each bracket is stated in whole degrees Celsius. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, and a value ending in exactly half is rounded up. For example, 13.9 degrees counts as 14 degrees, and minus 1.7 degrees counts as minus 2 degrees [1]. An observation is assigned to the date shown on its time stamp after conversion to Munich's local time, including any daylight-saving shift [1]. The rules name the Aviation Weather Center's routine observations for EDDM as the primary resolution source. If that source has not published a routine temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If neither source has published enough data by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. Corrected reports are treated under the rules' timing provisions, and the rules also describe a seven-day window for a correction when a published value is clearly erroneous [1]. The saved event contains 11 brackets, running from 9 degrees or below through 19 degrees or higher [1]. In the saved snapshot, the 17 degree bracket and the 16 degree bracket carry the highest Yes prices among these brackets [1]. A price in this snapshot is a reported trading value at one moment, not a verified probability or an executable quote.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single numerical outcome: the highest qualifying temperature at one airport on one date, as defined by the station's routine weather reports [1]. Because the bracket is determined by a rounded whole-degree value, small differences in the reported temperature can change which bracket resolves. The rules also specify which report types count, how missing temperature remarks are handled, and what happens if no data is published, so the exact wording determines the outcome [1]. The timing matters as well. The provider record lists an end time of 12:00 UTC on October 27, 2026 [1]. The rules, however, describe resolution at the first METAR for the station on the day after the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on that day, whichever comes first, and they base resolution on the observations shown for the observation date [1]. Those are different timestamps, and the rules text is the governing description of when resolution occurs.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Do special weather reports count toward the highest temperature?
No. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Other reports are treated as routine, including reports issued off the nominal hour [1].
How is a temperature reported in whole degrees converted for a bracket?
If a routine observation lacks the hourly temperature remark, the whole-degree temperature in the body of the observation governs for that report [1].
What happens if no temperature is published for the date?
The rules say the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used if the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine temperature for the date by the deadline. If neither source has enough data by then, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
Does a correction to an observation change the result?
The rules say the report the resolution source shows for an observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction. Changes are considered only until the first datapoint for the following date has been published [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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