US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

Name: US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$140.52K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $140.52K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $140.52K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	Poly	100%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$140.52K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before U.S. President Donald Trump visits China. This market will resolve to “No” if U.S. President Donald Trump visits China before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Ir

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (46 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before U.S. President Donald Trump visits China. 

This market will resolve to “No” if U.S. President Donald Trump visits China before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Ir

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before U.S. President Donald Trump visits China. 

This market will resolve to “No” if U.S. Presi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $140.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $45.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.09)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $140.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

45d 12h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

100¢

Polymarket

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US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

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US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)