Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Fed funds rate at end of 2027

Total Volume

$111.27K

Events

Markets

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Fed funds rate at end of 2027

Vol

$111.27K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $111.27K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $111.27K

100%

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21 markets tracked

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.75%?

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Single-Platform Markets(21)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.75%?	Kalshi	100%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.25%?	Kalshi	99%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.00%?	Kalshi	98%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.00%?	Kalshi	96%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.50%?	Kalshi	92%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.50%?	Kalshi	90%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.00%?	Kalshi	89%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.75%?	Kalshi	89%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.25%?	Kalshi	87%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.25%?	Kalshi	86%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.50%?	Kalshi	86%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.00%?	Kalshi	86%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.75%?	Kalshi	84%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.25%?	Kalshi	61%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.75%?	Kalshi	41%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.50%?	Kalshi	41%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 5.00%?	Kalshi	28%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 5.25%?	Kalshi	23%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 5.50%?	Kalshi	19%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 6.00%?	Kalshi	13%
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 5.75%?	Kalshi	11%

AI Analysis

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100%

Top Probability

$111.27K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

December 31, 2027 If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Fed funds rate at end of 2027
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** December 31, 2027

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 6.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $111.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 6.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $617
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 5.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $195
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 5.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $311
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 5.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 5.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $12.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $14.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $19.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $24.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $6.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $16.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 87.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 89.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $851
  DATA: [Yes: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $233
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $112
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $196
  DATA: [Yes: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $612
  DATA: [Yes: 98.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Fed funds rate at end of 2027

Volume$111.27K

Markets21

21 of 21

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KALSHI

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.75%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.75%?

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.75%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than

KALSHI

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.25%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.5¢No 1.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.25%?

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.25%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than

KALSHI

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.00%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.0¢No 2.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.00%?

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 1.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than

KALSHI

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.00%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.00%?

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 2.00%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than

KALSHI

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.50%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.0¢No 8.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.50%?

If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 2.50%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than

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Fed funds rate at end of 2027

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Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.75%?

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Events (1)

Fed funds rate at end of 2027

Markets (21)

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.75%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.75%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.25%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.25%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.00%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.00%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.00%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.00%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.50%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.50%?

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Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.75%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Fed funds rate at end of 2027

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.75%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.75%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.25%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.25%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.00%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.00%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.00%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.00%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.50%?

Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.50%?

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