Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T00:00:06.267Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The contract asks whether the Nasdaq-100 index value at 1pm EDT on October 20, 2026 will be above a stated threshold. The rules state: "If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Oct 20, 2026 at 1pm EDT is above X then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Each market in this sample uses a different threshold, such as 27989.99 or 27879.99. The source also notes that "the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets," so the full rulebook should be checked before relying on any one market's wording [1].

Timing needs care. The rules say "The market will close on October 20, 2026" and that it "will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after October 20, 2026" [1]. The market records, however, list an end date of 2026-10-27T20:00:00.000Z [1]. The excerpt says the listed end time was not supplied, so the discrepancy cannot be resolved from this evidence. The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-20T00:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-20T00:35:02Z [1]. Both times fall before the 1pm EDT measurement point, so these prices describe a moment before the contract's reference time, not a settled outcome.

Reading the snapshot

This is a partial sample. It includes 12 of 400 markets from one Kalshi event [1]. Every included market shows a Yes price of 0.995 and a No price of 0.005 [1]. Because the sample was selected by Yes price, these 12 markets are not the full field, and nothing can be concluded about the omitted thresholds.

These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The excerpt does not supply volume, so it offers no basis for judging liquidity or the number of participants.

Comparing these contracts with markets on other platforms would mix unlike outcomes unless thresholds, measurement times, and rules match exactly.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why the prices took these values. The listed end time is missing, and the rules' close and expiry language differs from the stored end date [1]. Only one provider event is supplied, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The final result will depend on the index value at the stated 1pm EDT time, which is not included in this evidence.

References

1. Kalshi: Nasdaq-100 price on Oct 20, 2026 at 1pm EDT?. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T00:00:06.267Z.