Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
Total Volume
$1.56K
Events
1
Markets
1
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $1.56K
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $1.56K
100%
Polymarket leads
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 81% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
81%
Top Probability
$1.56K
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes"
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets currently assign an 81% probability that an artificial intelligence will win a gold medal at the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) in 2026. This high confidence level indicates the market views this outcome as very likely, though not a foregone conclusion. With a price of $0.81 per "Yes" share on Polymarket, traders are heavily betting on a landmark achievement in AI capability. However, the market's relatively thin volume of approximately $2,000 suggests this consensus is not yet backed by deep, liquid trading.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
Two primary factors are driving the high probability. First, there has been rapid, demonstrable progress in AI for advanced reasoning. The explicit existence of dedicated benchmarks like the IMO Grand Challenge and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO) prize creates a clear, publicly verifiable pathway for resolution. These initiatives, backed by leading AI research institutions, signal a serious, coordinated push to achieve this goal.
Second, recent leaps in large language models and symbolic AI systems have shown an ability to solve increasingly complex, Olympiad-level problems. Historical patterns in AI, such as its performance in games like chess and Go, suggest that once a clear benchmark is targeted and sufficient resources are allocated, performance often improves at an accelerating pace. The market is pricing in the expectation that current research trajectories will bridge the remaining gap to gold-medal performance within the next two years.
What Could Change These Odds
The primary near-term catalyst for odds movement will be public progress updates or published results from the IMO Grand Challenge or AIMO Prize competitions. A significant published breakthrough demonstrating AI solving a full set of IMO problems would likely push probabilities toward 95% or higher.
Conversely, the key risk to the current high-confidence view is the discovery of a fundamental, unsolved limitation in AI reasoning. If leading research teams encounter a persistent barrier in achieving robust, generalized mathematical reasoning at the IMO level, the odds could fall sharply. The resolution date of December 31, 2026, is still distant, allowing for multiple cycles of research progress and potential setbacks that will drive volatility. The market may be underestimating the difficulty of the final leap from solving some problems to consistently achieving a gold-medal score under official contest conditions.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.