Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

CO-04 House election: Douglas Mangeris vote percent

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$4.05K

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CO-04 House election: Douglas Mangeris vote percent

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$4.05K

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markets · $0.00

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Volume DistributionTotal: $4.05K

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7 markets tracked

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?	Kalshi	97%
Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?	Kalshi	82%
Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?	Kalshi	52%
Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?	Kalshi	28%
Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?	Kalshi	15%
Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?	Kalshi	8%
Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 7% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?	Kalshi	4%

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97%

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$4.05K

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About This Event

Vote Percent - Douglas Mangeris If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Douglas Mangeris in the 2026 CO-04 House election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Douglas Mangeris ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are include

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** CO-04 House election: Douglas Mangeris vote percent
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Vote Percent - Douglas Mangeris

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Douglas Mangeris in the 2026 CO-04 House election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Douglas Mangeris ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are include

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Douglas Mangeris in the 2026 CO-04 House election is 7% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Douglas Mangeris ÷ total valid votes ca"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 7% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $619
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $438
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $600
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $800
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 81.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

CO-04 House election: Douglas Mangeris vote percent

Volume$4.05K

Markets7

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KALSHI

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.0¢No 3.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Douglas Mangeris in the 2026 CO-04 House election is 1% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Douglas Mangeris ÷ total valid votes ca

KALSHI

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 81.5¢No 18.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Douglas Mangeris in the 2026 CO-04 House election is 2% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Douglas Mangeris ÷ total valid votes ca

KALSHI

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.5¢No 48.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Douglas Mangeris in the 2026 CO-04 House election is 3% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Douglas Mangeris ÷ total valid votes ca

KALSHI

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 27.5¢No 72.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Douglas Mangeris in the 2026 CO-04 House election is 4% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Douglas Mangeris ÷ total valid votes ca

KALSHI

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Douglas Mangeris in the 2026 CO-04 House election is 5% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Douglas Mangeris ÷ total valid votes ca

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/GgLKHj" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="CO-04 House election: Douglas Mangeris vote percent"></iframe>

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CO-04 House election: Douglas Mangeris vote percent

CO-04 House election: Douglas Mangeris vote percent

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Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

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Events (1)

CO-04 House election: Douglas Mangeris vote percent

Markets (7)

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

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Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

CO-04 House election: Douglas Mangeris vote percent

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 1% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

Will Douglas Mangeris receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 CO-04 House election?

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