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In 2026 If X has been nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 98th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2026. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.
Prediction markets are currently pricing in a 100% probability that Timothée Chalamet will receive a Best Actor nomination at the 98th Academy Awards, based on the leading contract trading at maximum value. This unanimous market consensus indicates traders view the nomination as virtually certain. Across the broader category of 44 markets tracking potential 2026 Best Actor nominees, total volume has reached $3.5 million, demonstrating high liquidity and significant trader interest in these Oscar forecasts.
The absolute certainty priced in for Chalamet is primarily driven by his starring role in the upcoming film A Complete Unknown, where he portrays music icon Bob Dylan. Directed by James Mangold, the biopic is a major awards season contender, and transformative lead performances in prestigious musical biopics have a strong historical nomination record. Secondly, Chalamet is considered overdue for a Best Actor nomination after a previous Supporting Actor nod, with the market anticipating a narrative favoring his lead actor breakthrough. Third, early industry reporting and festival buzz have positioned this project as a frontrunner, with traders acting on this insider-leaning sentiment well before the official nominations announcement.
Given the 100% price, the only factor that could change these odds is an unforeseen shock, such as the film's release being delayed past the 2025 eligibility window or a significant critical and audience backlash upon its release later this year. The market resolves on January 22, 2026, following the nominations announcement. A major shift would require the film to underperform so severely that it falls out of awards contention entirely, a scenario the current pricing deems impossible.
This event is traded on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with a notable 3.9% price spread. The "Yes" contract is priced higher on Polymarket, reflecting platform-specific liquidity and trader demographics. This spread presents a narrow arbitrage opportunity for sophisticated traders to buy on Kalshi and sell on Polymarket, locking in a small risk-free profit if executed simultaneously. The difference likely stems from varying trader confidence levels and capital flow between the crypto-based Polymarket and the regulated Kalshi platform.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns whether a specific documentary film, referred to as 'X' in the market contract, will receive a nomination for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards. The Oscars, presented by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS), represent the highest honors in the global film industry. The nomination announcement for the 98th ceremony is scheduled for January 2026, with the awards ceremony typically following in March. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if X is among the nominees announced that day, closing at 10am ET the following morning. This market allows participants to speculate on the critical and industry recognition of a documentary film based on its artistic merit, cultural impact, and campaign strategy leading up to the nomination deadline. Interest stems from the prestige of an Oscar nomination, which can significantly boost a documentary's visibility, distribution prospects, and historical legacy. The outcome depends on the votes of the Academy's Documentary Branch, comprising hundreds of filmmakers and professionals who screen eligible films throughout the year. Recent trends show the category embracing diverse subjects, from social justice and environmental issues to intimate personal portraits and investigative journalism, making the race highly competitive and unpredictable.
The Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature was introduced in 1942, initially as a separate category for short and feature-length documentaries before being split. The award has historically recognized films that combine artistic achievement with substantive investigation, though its criteria and voter preferences have shifted over decades. A significant precedent was set in 2013 when the rules were changed to allow documentaries that had a one-week qualifying run in both Los Angeles and New York, and were also reviewed by the New York Times or Los Angeles Times, to be eligible. This opened the door for more theatrically released documentaries. Another key historical moment was the 2020 nomination and subsequent win of 'American Factory,' the first film distributed by a streaming service (Netflix) to win the category, signaling a major shift in the industry's power dynamics. The category has also been a barometer for social issues, with winners like 'An Inconvenient Truth' (2006) on climate change and 'Icarus' (2017) on sports doping reflecting broader cultural concerns. The voting process itself has a specific history, moving from a committee system to the current two-stage process involving the entire Documentary Branch, which was fully implemented for the 2013 awards.
An Oscar nomination for Best Documentary Feature confers immense cultural capital and can dramatically alter the trajectory of a film and its creators. For filmmakers, it validates years of work, provides a permanent place in cinematic history, and often leads to greater funding and creative opportunities for future projects. For the subjects of documentaries, a nomination amplifies their cause or story on a global stage, potentially influencing public discourse and policy. Economically, a nomination can lead to a substantial increase in viewership and revenue. Studies have shown that documentaries nominated for an Oscar can see a box office boost of over 200% post-announcement, while streaming titles experience significant spikes in subscriber engagement. For distributors, especially streaming platforms, an Oscar nomination is a key marketing tool used to attract and retain subscribers, justifying significant investment in documentary production and acquisition. The race also reflects and shapes industry trends, indicating which topics and storytelling approaches resonate with the documentary filmmaking community at a given time.
As of late 2024, the documentary film landscape is actively shaping up for the 98th Academy Awards cycle in 2026. Filmmakers and distributors are planning festival premieres for 2025, which will serve as the crucial launch window for potential contenders. Major documentary acquisitions are being negotiated at festivals and markets. The specific film 'X' referenced in this market may be in production, post-production, or early festival strategy phases. The rules for eligibility for the 98th Oscars will be finalized and published by the Academy in early 2025, setting the official timeline for qualifying releases. Industry publications like IndieWire and Variety are beginning to track potential contenders based on festival buzz, director pedigree, and subject matter.
To be eligible, a documentary must have a theatrical release of at least seven consecutive days in both Los Angeles County and Manhattan during the calendar year. It must also be reviewed by a critic from either the New York Times or Los Angeles Times. The film must be submitted by the stated deadline, typically in early November.
All eligible films are viewed and scored by members of the Academy's Documentary Branch. The top 15 scoring films become the shortlist in December. Branch members then view the shortlisted films and vote to select the five nominees. Finally, all Academy members who have viewed all five nominated films can vote for the winner.
Yes, provided it also meets the theatrical qualifying run requirements in Los Angeles and New York. Streaming platforms like Netflix and Hulu regularly qualify their documentaries for Oscars by arranging limited theatrical releases to satisfy these rules before the films debut on their services.
The submission deadline is typically in early November of the year preceding the ceremony. For the 98th Oscars in 2026, the deadline for documentary feature submissions will likely be in early November 2025. Exact dates are announced by the Academy each spring.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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In 2026 If X has been nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 98th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2026. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed movie is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for B


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