Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?

Name: Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?
End: 2026-11-30T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$41.42

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?

Vol

$41.42

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $41.42

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $41.42

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?	Poly	80%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

80%

Top Probability

$41.42

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Party (PP) and Vox win a combined total of 176 seats or more in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Sea

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 30, 2026 (49 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Party (PP) and Vox win a combined total of 176 seats or more in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Sea

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Party (PP) and Vox win a combined total of 176 seats or more in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $41
* **Total Liquidity:** $667
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.06)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $41
  DATA: [Yes: 79.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

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