Karoline Leavitt out by March 31? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Karoline Leavitt out by March 31?

Name: Karoline Leavitt out by March 31?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.82K

Events

Markets

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Karoline Leavitt out by March 31?

Vol

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Polymarket

markets · $3.82K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.82K

100%

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1 market tracked

Karoline Leavitt out by March 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Karoline Leavitt out by March 31?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$3.82K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Karoline Leavitt ceases to be the White House Press Secretary for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Leavitt's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Leaves of absence, such as maternity leave, will qualify. The resolution sour

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, March 2, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Karoline Leavitt out by March 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Karoline Leavitt ceases to be the White House Press Secretary for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Leavitt's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Leaves of absence, such as maternity leave, will qualify.

The resolution sour

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Karoline Leavitt ceases to be the White House Press Secretary for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Leavitt's resignation/removal before this market's end d"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.11)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Karoline Leavitt out by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

28d 18h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

4¢

Polymarket

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Karoline Leavitt out by March 31?

Karoline Leavitt out by March 31?

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Karoline Leavitt out by March 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Karoline Leavitt out by March 31?

Educational Context

Events (1)