$254.09K
2
4
$254.09K
2
4
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
AGI If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns whether OpenAI, a leading artificial intelligence research company, will announce the attainment of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by a specified deadline, December 31 of a given year. AGI refers to a hypothetical type of artificial intelligence that possesses the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to solve any problem that a human being can, across a wide range of cognitive tasks. The market resolves to 'Yes' if OpenAI makes a formal announcement confirming they have achieved this milestone before the deadline, with an early close condition triggering the market to close the following day at 10am Eastern Time upon such an announcement. The topic sits at the intersection of cutting-edge AI research, corporate strategy, and profound technological forecasting, capturing intense interest from investors, technologists, and policymakers. Recent advancements in large language models like GPT-4 have fueled speculation about the timeline to AGI, making this a central question in the AI community. People are interested because the achievement of AGI by a private entity like OpenAI would represent one of the most significant technological breakthroughs in human history, with unpredictable and potentially transformative consequences for the global economy, labor markets, and societal structure.
The pursuit of AGI has deep roots in the history of artificial intelligence. The term itself was popularized in the early 2000s, contrasting with 'narrow AI' that excels at specific tasks. OpenAI was founded in December 2015 with an explicit, non-profit mission to ensure that AGI benefits all of humanity. A pivotal moment came in 2018, when OpenAI published a paper introducing the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) architecture, demonstrating the power of scaling up language models. The release of GPT-3 in 2020, with 175 billion parameters, showed remarkable few-shot learning capabilities, reigniting serious debate about AGI timelines. In 2023, the launch of GPT-4 represented another leap, exhibiting improved reasoning and performance on professional exams. Historically, predictions about AGI have been notoriously inaccurate, often suffering from the 'AI effect,' where once a capability is achieved, it is no longer considered true intelligence. Past surveys of AI researchers, like the one conducted by AI Impacts in 2022, have shown a median prediction for AGI around 2059, though these estimates have been trending earlier with recent breakthroughs.
The announcement of AGI by OpenAI would trigger seismic shifts across every sector of human endeavor. Economically, it could automate vast swaths of cognitive labor, potentially displacing jobs in fields from software engineering to legal analysis while simultaneously unlocking new industries and forms of wealth creation. The entity that controls the first AGI could attain a level of economic and strategic advantage often compared to a nation-state possessing nuclear weapons first, raising urgent questions about governance, access, and inequality. Politically and socially, the development poses profound safety and alignment challenges. An AGI that is not carefully aligned with human values could act in unintended and catastrophic ways. Furthermore, the concentration of such powerful technology within a single, initially private company would force a global reckoning on regulation, oversight, and the distribution of its benefits, challenging existing international frameworks and potentially destabilizing geopolitical balances.
As of late 2024, OpenAI continues to release iterative improvements to its models and has begun deploying AI agents capable of performing complex, multi-step tasks. The company has not made any formal claim of achieving AGI. However, internal tensions and public statements indicate intense focus on both the technical path to more general intelligence and the profound safety challenges it presents. The AI research community is closely watching for signs of 'sparks' of AGI, such as models that can reliably perform novel scientific discovery or long-horizon reasoning without human intervention. Recent advancements from competitors also increase competitive pressure on OpenAI's timeline.
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is a type of AI that possesses the ability to understand, learn, and apply intelligence to solve any problem across a wide range of domains, much like a human. There is no single technical test, but it generally implies performance at or above human level on economically valuable cognitive work.
OpenAI executives have offered cautious predictions but no fixed deadline. CEO Sam Altman has suggested it could happen within the next decade, while emphasizing the uncertainty. The company's charter commits to advancing AGI cautiously and for the benefit of humanity, not according to a specific schedule.
It would likely be a major, formal announcement from company leadership, accompanied by technical papers and possibly demonstrations. Given the gravity of the claim, they would need to provide substantial evidence of a system's general reasoning capabilities across diverse, novel tasks to be credible to the scientific community.
ChatGPT is a powerful but narrow AI, excelling at language tasks within its training distribution. AGI would not be limited to a single domain, it could transfer learning to entirely new types of problems, reason abstractly, and set its own goals, demonstrating a flexible, general understanding of the world.
Key competitors include Google DeepMind, Anthropic, and xAI. DeepMind, with successes like AlphaFold, has a long track record in AI research. Anthropic, founded by former OpenAI researchers, focuses intensely on AI safety. These companies represent different approaches to the same ultimate goal.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
Share your predictions and analysis with other traders. Coming soon!
3 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9% | 10% | 1% |
Different
Similar
AGI If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official inform
No related news found
Polymarket
$15.55K
Kalshi
$238.54K
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/H-Fvw_" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="When will OpenAI achieve AGI?"></iframe>