GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

Total Volume

$0.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

Vol

$0.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2030)

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2030)	Kalshi	40%
Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2028)	Kalshi	23%
Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2027)	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

40%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

AGI If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** AGI

If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET. If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2027)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2028)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2030)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 40.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

Volume$0.00

Markets3

3 of 3

Sort:

KALSHI

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2030)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 40.1¢No 59.9¢

KALSHITech

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2030)

If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2028)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.7¢No 77.3¢

KALSHITech

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2028)

If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

KALSHI

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2027)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.6¢No 94.5¢

KALSHITech

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2027)

If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close the following 10am ET.

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

6¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/H-Fvw_" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="When will OpenAI achieve AGI?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2030)

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

Markets (1)

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2030)

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2030)

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2028)

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2028)

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2027)

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2027)

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2030)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will OpenAI achieve AGI?

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2030)

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2030)

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2028)

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2028)

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2027)

Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI? (Before 2027)

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget