China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Name: China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$343.91K

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China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

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Polymarket

markets · $343.91K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $343.91K

100%

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1 market tracked

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Poly	19%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

19%

Top Probability

$343.91K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forc

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (350 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forc

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is d"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $343.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $45.0K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 7.64)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $343.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

349d 16h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

19¢

Polymarket

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China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

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China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)