This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Highest temperature in Seattle on May 3?

Name: Highest temperature in Seattle on May 3?
End: 2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$5.92K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Highest temperature in Seattle on May 3?

Vol

$5.92K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $5.92K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.92K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on May 3?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on May 3?	Poly	38%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on May 3?	Poly	32%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 3?	Poly	16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 3?	Poly	8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 3?	Poly	2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 3?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 3?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 3?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 3?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 3?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 3?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

38%

Top Probability

$5.92K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Seattle on May 3?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 3, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $37.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.16)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 61°F or below on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $585
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $575
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $790
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $806
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $215
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $116
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $537
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $887
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $429
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $496
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on May 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $481
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate