Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner
PM $12.5K
1
3
Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner
PM $12.5K
1
3
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Wang Chung-ming at 75%.
Polymarket
- Wang Chung-ming75%
- Tsao Erh-yuan20.2%
- Tsao Erh-chang<0.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $12.5K
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Lienchiang County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event asks who will become the next Magistrate of Lienchiang County. The rules state that "Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026" [1]. The market resolves to the candidate who becomes Magistrate through that election, and "Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered" [1].
The rules also set a fallback. If "the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 'Other'" [1]. Resolution follows "a consensus of credible reporting," and if that is ambiguous, it follows "the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-29T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is the listed close time for trading, not a date on which the result is announced.
Reading the snapshot
The evidence contains three separate binary markets from this event. The observation time is 2026-10-16T00:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T00:09:52Z [1]. These are records of that moment, not live or executable quotes.
- Will Wang Chung-ming win: Yes 0.755, No 0.245
- Will Tsao Erh-yuan win: Yes 0.249, No 0.751
- Will Tsao Erh-chang win: Yes 0.0005, No 0.9995
Each market is a separate question with its own Yes and No prices. The Yes prices are not a single ranking to combine with other platforms or events. Price differences between contracts do not by themselves show an opportunity, because the wording, sample, and timing must match first.
What remains uncertain
The coverage record reports three of three markets included, with no partial sample flag [1]. The sampleWarning, however, states that the saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The "Other" outcome described in the rules does not appear as a separate priced market in this snapshot, so this evidence does not show its price.
The evidence does not include volume, liquidity, trader counts, or reasons for any price level. It also does not describe current candidate status or any events after the snapshot. Readers should consult the official rules and a fresh observation before drawing conclusions about the current market.
References
- Polymarket: Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
PredictPedia's Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner event is a prediction market tied to the local election scheduled for November 28, 2026 [1][2]. Wikipedia's entry on the 2026 Taiwanese local elections states that voters will elect county magistrates, county councilors, township mayors, township councilors and village chiefs in 6 municipalities and 16 counties and cities, and that elected officials would serve four-year terms [2]. The Lienchiang County contract concerns only the magistrate race. The rules say the market resolves to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Lienchiang County as a result of this election [1]. Temporary, interim, or placeholder magistrates appointed before the election do not count [1]. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If that reporting is ambiguous, the official results published by the Central Election Commission of Taiwan govern [1]. If the result is not known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the outcome labeled Other [1]. The event lists a listed end time of 2026-11-29T04:59:00 UTC [1]. That is the platform's listed closing time for the contracts. It is not an announced result or a separate event date, and the actual resolution depends on the outcome and reporting rules described above. Each market in the event asks whether one named person will win the next Lienchiang County Magistrate election, with Yes and No outcomes [1]. The saved event includes three such markets, and all three saved markets are included in the sample. The sample does not establish that the platform lists every possible real-world outcome.
Historical Context
Taiwan's 2014 local elections, commonly called the nine-in-one elections, were held on Saturday, 29 November 2014. They elected municipal mayors, municipal councilors, county magistrates, county councilors, township chiefs, township councilors and village chiefs, among other posts, across 6 municipalities and 16 counties and cities. Elected officials served four-year terms [3]. The 2026 local elections follow the same four-year term structure and cover the same type of offices, as described in the 2026 entry [2].
Why It Matters
The contract is designed to track who wins the Lienchiang County magistrate post in the November 28, 2026 election [1][2]. Its resolution rules focus on the person who becomes the next magistrate, which excludes interim or placeholder appointments and relies on credible reporting with official Central Election Commission results as the reference when reporting is unclear [1]. Traders who read the contract should note the fallback to Other if no candidate is elected by June 30, 2027 [1]. Prices on these markets reflect trading activity at the time of observation. They are not verified probabilities of the outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What election does this contract cover?
It covers the Lienchiang County Magistrate election. Taiwanese local elections are scheduled for November 28, 2026 [1][2].
Do interim or appointed magistrates count?
No. Temporary, interim, or placeholder magistrates appointed before the election are not considered [1].
Which official source settles disputes about the result?
If reporting is ambiguous, the market resolves based solely on official results reported by the Central Election Commission of Taiwan [1].
What happens if no winner is known by the deadline?
If the result is not known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1].
Does a contract price show the chance that a candidate wins?
Not by itself. The supplied evidence describes prices as snapshots from the platform at observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
