Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Quebec General Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory?

Name: Quebec General Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory?
End: 2026-10-05T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$7.34K

Events

Markets

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Quebec General Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory?

Vol

$7.34K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $7.34K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $7.34K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will the Parti Québécois win by between 10 and 19 seats?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Parti Québécois win by between 10 and 19 seats?	Poly	53%
Will the Parti Québécois win by between 20 and 29 seats?	Poly	32%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

53%

Top Probability

$7.34K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of the next Quebec general election. The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election. If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins” If the first

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Quebec General Election: # of Seats Margin of Victory?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 5, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of the next Quebec general election.

The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first and second most seats as a result of the specified election.

If any non-listed party wins the most seats as a result of this election, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”

If the first 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled by the first and second place parties in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of the next Quebec general election.

The first and second place parties will be the parties that respectively control the first"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $400
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 8.80)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Parti Québécois win by between 10 and 19 seats?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 53.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Parti Québécois win by between 20 and 29 seats?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 5, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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