Name: António José Seguro vote share in Portuguese presidential first round?
End: 2026-01-18T00:00:00.000Z

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António José Seguro vote share in Portuguese presidential first round? | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $54.06K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $54.06K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will António José Seguro win more than 22% of votes in the first round?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will António José Seguro win more than 22% of votes in the first round?	Poly	51%
Will António José Seguro win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first round?	Poly	24%
Will António José Seguro win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?	Poly	14%
Will António José Seguro win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round?	Poly	9%
Will António José Seguro win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?	Poly	8%
Will António José Seguro win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?	Poly	2%
Will António José Seguro win less than 12% of votes in the first round?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

Top Probability

$54.06K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the vote share António José Seguro wins in the first round of the Portuguese presidential election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is ma

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** António José Seguro vote share in Portuguese presidential first round?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 18, 2026 (3 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the vote share António José Seguro wins in the first round of the Portuguese presidential election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is ma

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the vote share António José Seguro wins in the first round of the Portuguese presidential election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $54.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $16.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.30)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will António José Seguro win less than 12% of votes in the first round?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will António José Seguro win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $24.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will António José Seguro win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will António José Seguro win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $7.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will António José Seguro win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $6.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will António José Seguro win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first round?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will António José Seguro win more than 22% of votes in the first round?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 18, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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