Dogecoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
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Dogecoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers one event from Polymarket, titled "Dogecoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30AM to 2:35AM ET" [1]. The rules say the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range" [1]. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Prices on other exchanges or in other Dogecoin markets do not determine this contract.
The listed end time is 2026-10-25T06:35:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's closing time, not a record of how it resolved. The evidence does not show a resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z, and the application retrieved the source at 2026-10-24T13:15:38.590Z [1]. The prices below reflect the first observation time, not the retrieval time, and they are not current prices.
The saved snapshot lists two outcomes: "Up" at 0.5 and "Down" at 0.5 [1]. These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence does not include bid and ask levels, depth, or volume, so it does not show how easily either side could be traded.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because the sample is complete for this event, there are no omitted outcomes to compare against. Nothing here supports comparing this contract with other Dogecoin contracts or other platforms, because their rules, windows, and closing times may differ.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why either price is at 0.5, and it does not show trader counts or recent developments. It also does not establish whether the market has resolved or what the TWAP will show, because that data falls after the snapshot.
Readers comparing this contract with another should check the title, resolution source, reference price rule, and listed end time. Two contracts with similar titles can resolve differently if their windows or data sources differ.
References
- Polymarket: Dogecoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-interval price market for Dogecoin, listed on Polymarket under the title "Dogecoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET" [1]. It asks whether DOGE/USD will move up or down over one five-minute window. The contract is in the Crypto category and was listed as active when the provider record was retrieved [1]. The rules describe a time-weighted average price (TWAP) rather than a single trade. The market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. Because the comparison uses an average across the window, a brief spike or dip at one moment does not by itself decide the outcome. The resolution source is the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream published by Chainlink, which the rules identify as a 60-second TWAP stream [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream and not any other source or spot market [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a price shown on an exchange or aggregator should therefore expect differences in the reference price, since the contract specifies which feed governs. The listed end time is 2026-10-25T06:35:00Z, which corresponds to the 2:35 AM ET end of the title window [1]. This is a contract closing time from the rules, not a separate announced event, and it does not indicate when any resolution has occurred.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the average DOGE/USD price reported by a specific Chainlink data stream over a five-minute window finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. It is useful for understanding how a short-interval crypto market is defined: the settlement feed, the averaging method, the time window, and the tie rule (equal counts as Up) all determine the result [1]. Anyone reading a price for this contract should keep in mind that the rules tie it to the Chainlink stream rather than to general market prices [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the outcome decided?
The market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP of Dogecoin from Chainlink over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price source is used?
The resolution source is the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules say the market is about the price in that stream rather than other sources or spot markets [1].
What time window does the contract cover?
The title specifies 2:30AM to 2:35AM ET on October 25, and the listed end time in the provider record is 2026-10-25T06:35:00Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.