Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET" [1]. The source states that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the source notes that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-25T06:35:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's close time in the saved record, not a confirmed resolution time. The evidence does not show whether or when the market resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation was taken at 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z and retrieved at 2026-10-24T13:06:37.776Z [1]. The price data therefore describe that earlier moment, not current trading. The record shows an "Up" price of 0.505 and a "Down" price of 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence also does not include volume or order book depth, so it cannot indicate liquidity or how many traders are participating.
The sample covers one market from one platform. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because there is no second contract or platform in this evidence, no cross-contract or cross-platform comparison is possible here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stand where they do, and this explanation does not attempt one. It also does not establish whether the provider lists every possible outcome. The source notes that the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1], though this record contains only the two outcomes named above.
Readers comparing this contract with others should check each contract's wording, listed end time, and observation time. Differences in the TWAP window, reference price, or close time mean that prices on different contracts measure different things and should not be treated as an arbitrage signal by themselves.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term crypto price contract listed on Polymarket: "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET." The contract asks whether the price of HYPE/USD, measured over a five-minute window, will finish at or above where it started. The event is categorized under crypto, and the provider lists its status as active with a listed end time of 2026-10-25T06:35:00Z, which corresponds to 2:35 AM Eastern on October 25 [1]. The resolution rule is specific. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The rule uses a time-weighted average rather than a single trade, so the result depends on the average across the window and not on the price at one instant. The named resolution source is Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, identified in the provider's rules as the 60-second TWAP stream [1]. The provider also states that the contract concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream only, and not any other sources or spot markets [1]. This matters because a price on another exchange or venue would not determine the outcome. At the observation time of 2026-10-24 12:00 UTC, the saved market showed Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495. These are snapshot prices from that moment, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. They also do not reflect the contract's state at the time of this article's update.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of HYPE/USD over one five-minute window, as defined by a Chainlink TWAP data stream. Because the resolution compares the window's time-weighted average with the price at the start of the window, it isolates short-term directional movement in that specific data feed [1]. Readers should treat the contract as a rule-defined comparison rather than a general forecast of Hyperliquid's price, since the outcome depends only on the named data stream and the stated window [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a market resolving to Up mean for this contract?
It means the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP over the 2:30 AM to 2:35 AM ET window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
Which price source determines the result?
The result is determined by the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream named in the rules. The provider states that other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
Does the listed end time mean the contract has already closed?
The listed end time is 2026-10-25T06:35:00Z, which is after the saved observation time and the current date in this article's context. The provider's status at retrieval was active [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.