Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture

Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?

Name: Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$547.97

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $547.97

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $547.97

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?	Poly	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

16%

Top Probability

$547.97

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (349 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is conv"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $548
* **Total Liquidity:** $568
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.96)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $548
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Next Market Closes

348d 11h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

16¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/HM1T4X" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket

Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?

Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)