Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers one market, "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET," on Polymarket [1]. The rules say it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T07:00:00.000Z [1]. Because the title gives the window in Eastern Time, readers comparing this with other contracts should check the close time in UTC rather than relying on the title alone. Contracts on other platforms or windows may use different wording, reference sources, or close times, so their prices should not be read as directly comparable.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation was taken at 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T09:13:20.748Z [1]. The provider status was active when retrieved [1]. These are snapshot times. They do not show live prices now, and the snapshot is not an executable quote.
The recorded prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These figures are not verified probabilities. They are the prices recorded at the observation time, and they sum to 1.00 in this saved sample. The snapshot does not explain why the prices sit where they do, and it does not report trading volume or the number of participants.
What remains uncertain
The sample includes one market from one provider event, with no partial sampling flagged [1]. The sample does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome or every related contract. No other platforms or events are included, so this snapshot cannot support a cross-platform comparison.
The contract closes at the listed end time, and the saved evidence does not report a resolution. Any outcome after the observation time is outside this snapshot. Price differences between contracts with different wording, sources, or close times do not on their own indicate an opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This market is a short-window contract on the price of Bitcoin, titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET." It is listed on Polymarket [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The outcome therefore depends on how the average price over the window compares with the starting price, not on the price at the final moment alone. The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream and not prices from other sources or spot markets [1]. Anyone reading a price for this contract should therefore check that specific feed rather than a general exchange quote. The saved record for this contract shows a listed end time of 07:00 UTC on October 20, 2026, and the title describes the window as running from 2:55AM to 3:00AM ET [1]. The record was observed at 09:00 UTC on October 19, 2026, when the contract was active [1]. The listed end time is a contract rule taken from the provider record. It is not a separately announced event, and the contract's status at any later time depends on fresh provider data.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average of Bitcoin's price over a five-minute window, as reported in the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because it uses an average rather than a single print, a brief spike or dip near the end of the window affects the result less than it would for a point-in-time price. The rules also limit the price reference to that one data stream [1], so the contract reflects that feed's data specifically.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the TWAP of Bitcoin over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which price data is used for resolution?
The resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The rules say that prices from other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
What time window does this contract cover?
The title gives the window as 2:55AM to 3:00AM ET on October 20. The saved record lists an end time of 07:00 UTC on October 20, 2026 [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.