Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET" [1]. The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The stated resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules say the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T08:00:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's closing time, not a record of when it resolved. The provider reports the market as active [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T09:10:09.573Z [1]. It shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are prices from that observation time only. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap between them is small, and the two prices sum to 1.00 in this snapshot.
The sample covers one market from one event, and the coverage record shows that market is the only one included, with no partial sample flagged [1]. Because only one contract is present, there is no other outcome to compare or rank against. The provider's selection note describes a limit of up to 12 markets per event, but that limit does not affect this single-market record [1].
Volume is not included in this excerpt, so nothing here can be said about liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are where they are, and this analysis does not attempt to. It also does not show how the BTC price moved during the contract window, because only the rules and the pre-window snapshot are supplied.
The excerpt does not include the actual outcome, a resolution record, or any later price. Any reading of this snapshot should be checked against the current provider page before drawing conclusions about the contract's status.
Finally, a different contract with a different title, source, or close time would not be a direct comparison to this one, even if its price were different.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-duration Polymarket contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET." It asks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down over a five-minute window. The provider lists the market as a binary event with two outcomes, "Up" and "Down" [1]. The contract's rules define the outcome by comparing two values. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The window in this title runs from 3:55 AM to 4:00 AM Eastern Time on October 20, and the listed end time is 2026-10-20T08:00:00Z [1]. The resolution source is named as Chainlink, specifically its BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second averaging interval [1]. The rules state that the contract concerns the price reported by that Chainlink data stream for the BTC/USD pair, not any other data source or spot market [1]. This means the outcome depends on that one feed's calculation rather than on the price shown on an exchange at a particular moment. The event record was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC and retrieved shortly after, with the provider status recorded as active at that time [1]. That status describes the record at retrieval. It does not show whether the contract has since closed or how it was settled.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over a short, specified window, using a time-weighted average from one named data feed [1]. Because the comparison is against the price at the start of the range, the question is whether the averaged price across the window finishes at or above the starting level [1]. The rules tie the result to Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP stream and expressly exclude other sources or spot markets, so the feed's own calculation is what matters for resolution [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is this contract decided?
It resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range, and to "Down" otherwise [1].
Which data source determines the outcome?
The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval. The rules state that other sources and spot markets are not used for this contract [1].
When does the trading window for this contract end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T08:00:00Z, which corresponds to the close of the 3:55 AM to 4:00 AM ET window named in the title [1].
Does the listed price show the chance that Bitcoin goes up?
The price is a snapshot of a market quote at one observation time. It is not an executable quote or a verified probability, so it should not be read as a confirmed forecast [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.