Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?
PM $31.5K
1
5
Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?
PM $31.5K
1
5
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 10th-12th at 62%.
Polymarket
- 10th-12th62%
- 7th-9th35.5%
- 6th or higher2.4%
- 13th-15th0.6%
- Below 15th0.4%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $31.5K
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final. 2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank. This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes. This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years. If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied event asks where 2026 will rank among all years on the Box Office Mojo "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart, using "Total Gross" [1]. The source says the market "will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross," and that "Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes" [1]. It also states that "This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank" [1]. Ties go to the higher-ranking position, and the source states that if no final data is available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, "another credible resolution source will be chosen" [1].
The listed end time is 2027-02-01T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is the provider's listed close time, not an announced event date, and the evidence does not show when the 2026 total will become final.
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z and retrieved at 2026-10-20T04:37:47.173Z. It describes prices at those times, not current prices. The five saved markets are all from one provider event, and the sample is marked as complete for that event, with all five included and no partial sample flag.
The quoted Yes prices are:
- 7th to 9th: 0.51
- 10th to 12th: 0.28
- Below 15th: 0.0525
- 6th or higher: 0.05
- 13th to 15th: 0.04
These are separate contracts with different wording. "Below 15th" and "13th to 15th" overlap in the bracket language, so the prices should not be added together or treated as a complete distribution. The highest quoted Yes price is for the 7th to 9th bracket, but the snapshot does not show why the market priced it that way, and a price is not a verified probability.
The sample warning states that the providers may not list every possible real-world outcome, so the absence of other brackets does not imply a particular price for them.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include the 2026 total gross, the ranking of other years beyond the rule text, or any final figures. It also does not show trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants, so the prices cannot be read as executable quotes or as measures of market depth.
Readers comparing these contracts should check each bracket's exact wording and close time against the rules, and should not treat differences in price as an arbitrage opportunity without verifying the executable terms directly.
References
- Polymarket: Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks where 2026 will rank among all years on record by total annual domestic box office gross. The resolution rules come from a Polymarket event that points to the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo [1]. Under those rules, 2026 is ranked against every other year listed on that same chart, with the highest-grossing year ranked 1st, the second-highest ranked 2nd, and so on. The market resolves to whichever bracket contains 2026's final rank [1]. The rules specify unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions are not used for resolution [1]. The rules also say that the Box Office Mojo annual figures govern regardless of whether 'domestic' means only the USA or the USA and Canada, and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses from films released in earlier years [1]. Ties are settled in 2026's favor for ranking purposes: if 2026 matches another year exactly, it takes the higher-ranking, lower-numbered position [1]. Timing matters for this contract. The rules say the market resolves once the 2026 value is final [1]. The listed end time is 2027-02-01T04:59:00Z, but the rules also set a fallback: if no final data is available by January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen [1]. The 2026 total is therefore not settled by the rules until the final figure is available, and the contract's listed end date is not a confirmed announcement that the figure will be published on any particular day. The Wikipedia background sources describe box office performance more generally. One notes that theatrical box-office earnings are the primary metric trade publications use to assess a film's success, partly because the data is more available than home video or broadcast sales figures [2]. Its lists are ranked by international theatrical performance where possible [2]. That is a different ranking basis from the domestic yearly chart named in this contract, so those lists should not be used to infer this contract's ranking.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single annual figure: the total domestic box office gross for 2026, compared with the totals for every other year on the Box Office Mojo domestic yearly chart [1]. Its value depends on the rank that final figure produces, not on the year's absolute revenue. Because the rules use unadjusted nominal gross, a year's rank reflects reported dollar totals rather than what those totals would buy in an earlier period [1]. Trade publications treat theatrical box office as the main measure of a film's commercial success [2], which helps explain why the annual theatrical gross is the figure this contract tracks [1]. The market snapshots show how traders priced different rank brackets at one observation time. The sample includes all five saved markets for this event, and the saved data does not establish that every possible rank bracket was listed. The most recent observed Yes price for ranks 7th through 9th was 0.51, for ranks 10th through 12th it was 0.28, for ranks 13th through 15th it was 0.04, for rank 6th or higher it was 0.05, and for below 15th it was 0.0525. These are price snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and a higher price on one bracket does not mean the market has determined the outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-20 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What figure decides how this market resolves?
The market uses the annual Total Gross figures on the Domestic Yearly Box Office chart at Box Office Mojo, with 2026 ranked against every other listed year [1].
Are inflation-adjusted numbers or ticket counts used?
No. The rules state that unadjusted nominal gross is used, and that inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions are not used for resolution [1].
What happens if 2026 ties another year?
For ranking purposes, 2026 is treated as holding the higher-ranking, lower-numbered position among the tied years [1].
What happens if final data is not available in time?
If there is no final data by January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the rules say another credible resolution source will be chosen [1].
Do the Wikipedia highest-grossing lists determine this contract?
Not directly. Those lists are ranked by international theatrical performance where possible [2][3], while this contract uses the domestic yearly chart on Box Office Mojo [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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