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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Name: Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
End: 2026-05-14T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.03M

Events

Markets

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Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Vol

$3.03M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.03M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.03M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?	Poly	99%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	Poly	98%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	Poly	93%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Poly	77%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$3.03M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 14, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Jerome Powell's resignation/removal before this market's end date "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.03M
* **Total Liquidity:** $358.0K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.68)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 14, 2026): Vol $1.93M
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 14, 2026): Vol $13.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.1% (0.0%)]

### 3. Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 14, 2026): Vol $46.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.6% (0.0%)]

### 4. Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 15, 2026): Vol $40.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 16, 2026): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.1% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics