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How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

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How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

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How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 120)

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 120)	Kalshi	96%
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 140)	Kalshi	83%
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 150)	Kalshi	57%
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 160)	Kalshi	30%
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 170)	Kalshi	18%
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 180)	Kalshi	9%
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 190)	Kalshi	8%
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 210)	Kalshi	6%
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 200)	Kalshi	6%

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96%

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About This Event

In 2026 If SpaceX has more than X launches Y 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If SpaceX has more than X launches Y 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If SpaceX has more than 210 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 150)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 210)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 200)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 190)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 180)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 170)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 160)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 140)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 82.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 120)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

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KALSHI

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 120)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHITech

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 120)

If SpaceX has more than 120 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.

KALSHI

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 140)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.5¢No 17.5¢

KALSHITech

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 140)

If SpaceX has more than 140 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.

KALSHI

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 150)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 57.0¢No 43.0¢

KALSHITech

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 150)

If SpaceX has more than 150 launches in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

KALSHI

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 160)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 29.5¢No 70.5¢

KALSHITech

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 160)

If SpaceX has more than 160 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.

KALSHI

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 170)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

KALSHITech

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 170)

If SpaceX has more than 170 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.

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How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

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How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 120)

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Educational Context

Events (1)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Markets (9)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 120)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 120)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 140)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 140)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 150)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 150)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 160)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 160)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 170)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 170)

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 120)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 120)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 120)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 140)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 140)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 150)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 150)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 160)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 160)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 170)

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? (Above 170)

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