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| Market | Platform | Price |
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Wil Marsha Blackburn be the Republican nominee for Governor in Tennessee? | Kalshi | 84% |
Wil John Rose be the Republican nominee for Governor in Tennessee? | Kalshi | 14% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Tennessee Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.
Prediction markets currently price Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity as the overwhelming favorite to win the 2026 Republican gubernatorial nomination. On Polymarket, her contract trades at approximately 93 cents, implying a 93% probability. On Kalshi, the equivalent contract trades around 87 cents, creating a notable 6.3% spread. A 93% chance indicates the market views her nomination as nearly certain, though the thin liquidity, with only $12,000 in volume across platforms, means this consensus is not backed by heavy capital.
Three concrete factors explain Garrity's dominant market position. First, she is a proven statewide winner, having been elected Treasurer in 2020 and re-elected in 2024, building crucial name recognition and a track record. Second, the Republican field appears to be consolidating behind her early, with significant party establishment support reducing the likelihood of a strong primary challenger. Third, her profile as a veteran and fiscal conservative aligns with the party's base, and she has avoided major intraparty conflicts that could derail a candidacy.
The primary event itself, scheduled for May 19, 2026, is the ultimate catalyst. The odds could shift if a high-profile Republican, such as a former U.S. Representative or a wealthy businessperson, enters the race before the filing deadline, likely in early 2026. A significant misstep or scandal involving Garrity would also dramatically alter the landscape. Furthermore, the thin market liquidity means a relatively small amount of capital betting against the consensus could move prices meaningfully before the field is formally set.
The 6.3% price gap between Polymarket (93%) and Kalshi (87%) is significant and suggests a potential arbitrage opportunity, buying on Kalshi and selling on Polymarket. This spread likely exists due to the markets' different user bases and the overall low liquidity, which can cause prices to diverge more easily. Polymarket's global, crypto-native traders may be more aggressively pricing in her perceived inevitability, while Kalshi's U.S.-regulated platform might attract traders slightly more cautious about pre-primary political volatility.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on who will secure the Republican nomination for Governor of Tennessee in the 2026 election. The market resolves to 'Yes' for a specific candidate, designated as 'X', if they win the party's primary, which will determine who challenges the Democratic nominee in the general election for the state's highest office. Tennessee has been a solidly Republican state in recent decades, with the GOP holding the governorship since 2011 and controlling supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The 2026 race is attracting significant early attention because it will be an open seat election, as incumbent Governor Bill Lee is term-limited and cannot run for re-election, creating a rare competitive primary for a powerful executive position. Political observers are closely watching because the outcome will shape Tennessee's policy direction on issues like education, taxes, and social policy for the next four to eight years, and could serve as a launching pad for national political ambitions.
Tennessee's political landscape has undergone a profound transformation since the mid-20th century. Once a Democratic stronghold as part of the 'Solid South', the state began a gradual shift toward the Republican Party starting with presidential politics. Barry Goldwater won Tennessee in 1960, and the trend continued, with the state voting for the Republican presidential candidate in every election since 2000. The governorship was the last major office to flip. Republican Winfield Dunn served from 1971 to 1975, but Democrats held the office for 24 of the next 36 years. The modern era of Republican dominance began with Bill Haslam's election in 2010. Haslam, a popular moderate conservative, served two terms and was succeeded by the current governor, Bill Lee, in 2018. Lee's re-election in 2022 with over 65% of the vote underscored the GOP's firm grip on the office. The 2026 election will mark the first open gubernatorial race since 2018, and only the second since 2010. Historically, open seats in Tennessee have drawn crowded, competitive primaries, as seen in 2018 when three major Republicans contested the nomination before Lee's victory.
The selection of Tennessee's next governor will have substantial consequences for the state's 7 million residents. The governor sets the policy agenda on critical issues like K-12 education funding, healthcare expansion under programs like TennCare, infrastructure development, and the state's tax structure. With a projected state budget exceeding $50 billion, the governor's fiscal priorities directly impact public services, business incentives, and economic growth. Furthermore, the governor appoints commissioners to lead all major state departments and has significant influence over the judiciary through appointments. Beyond state borders, the Tennessee governor is a notable figure in national Republican politics, often influencing policy debates on issues like immigration, energy, and social policy. A governor from Tennessee can also play a key role in presidential primaries and serve as a surrogate for national candidates. The outcome signals the direction of the Southern Republican Party, balancing business-friendly pragmatism with social conservatism.
As of late 2024, the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial race is in its earliest speculative phase. No major candidate has formally declared their intention to run for the Republican nomination. Potential candidates, including members of Tennessee's congressional delegation, statewide officials, and business leaders, are likely conducting private polling, consulting with advisors, and courting donors. The political focus remains on the November 2024 federal elections. Active campaigning for governor is expected to begin in earnest in 2025, following the conclusion of the 2024 election cycle. Key events to watch will be the filing deadline for candidates, which is typically in early April of the election year (2026), and the Republican primary, which will be held on August 6, 2026.
The general election will be held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The Republican primary, which will select the party's nominee, is scheduled for August 6, 2026. Early voting periods will occur before both dates.
The current governor is Republican Bill Lee. He is term-limited under Tennessee law, which restricts governors to two consecutive four-year terms. He was first elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022, so he is constitutionally barred from running for a third consecutive term in 2026.
The nominee is chosen by Republican voters in a statewide primary election. Tennessee has an open primary system, meaning voters do not register by party and can choose which party's primary ballot to vote on. The candidate who receives the most votes in the August primary becomes the nominee.
Key issues are expected to include education policy and funding, economic development and job growth, healthcare access and costs, infrastructure, and the state's tax structure. Cultural issues, such as legislation related to schools and families, also play a significant role in Republican primaries.
The last Democrat to serve as Governor of Tennessee was Phil Bredesen, who left office in January 2011 after serving two terms. Since then, Republicans Bill Haslam (2011-2019) and Bill Lee (2019-present) have held the office, each winning by large margins.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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