$33.00K
1
11
$33.00K
1
11
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Meta (META) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is publ
Prediction markets are assigning a low probability to Meta Platforms (META) closing in the $620-$630 range for the week ending January 16. The leading contract for that specific bracket is trading at just 35% on Polymarket. This price indicates the market sees a roughly one-in-three chance of this outcome, viewing it as possible but not the most likely scenario. With total volume across all price brackets at only $33,000, liquidity is thin, suggesting lower confidence in the consensus.
The primary factor suppressing odds for a $620-$630 close is Meta's recent trading history and current volatility. In the lead-up to this expiration, META stock has been sensitive to broader market sentiment and sector rotation, often exhibiting moves that place it outside a narrow $10 range. Furthermore, the specified week includes a U.S. market holiday on Monday, January 12, for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, resulting in a shortened four-day trading week. Historically, shortened weeks can sometimes amplify volatility or lead to atypical price consolidation, making a precise bracket prediction more challenging. The market is likely pricing in this inherent uncertainty.
The odds for this specific bracket are highly sensitive to immediate price action and any pre-market or intraday news on January 16, the resolution date. A key catalyst would be unexpected sector-wide news or a significant analyst upgrade or downgrade specifically targeting Meta. Given the low liquidity, a moderate surge in trading volume from a single large participant could also shift the quoted probabilities meaningfully in the final hours before resolution. The market's current low probability suggests traders expect the closing price to land outside this range, likely anticipating either a stronger rally above $630 or a pullback below $620 based on the week's momentum.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the weekly closing price of Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) stock, specifically for the week ending January 12. The market resolves based on the official closing price published by Nasdaq on the final trading session of that week, typically a Friday. This type of market allows participants to speculate on short-term price movements of one of the world's largest technology companies, reflecting collective sentiment on factors like quarterly earnings, advertising revenue trends, regulatory developments, and broader market conditions. Meta's stock is a key component of major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, making its performance a bellwether for the technology sector and digital advertising economy. Recent interest in Meta's weekly price stems from its volatile performance following its 2022 downturn and subsequent recovery driven by cost-cutting measures and strategic focus on artificial intelligence and the metaverse. Investors and analysts closely watch weekly closes for technical trading signals and to gauge momentum ahead of quarterly earnings reports, with the January period often setting the tone for the year as institutional investors rebalance portfolios.
Meta's stock, trading under the ticker META since June 2022 following the company's rebrand from Facebook, has experienced extreme volatility. In 2022, the share price collapsed by over 64%, falling from a peak of approximately $384 in September 2021 to a low of $88.09 in November 2022. This historic decline was driven by a perfect storm of factors, including Apple's iOS privacy updates that impaired ad targeting, rising inflation impacting advertiser budgets, increased competition from TikTok, and massive losses in the Reality Labs metaverse division. The subsequent recovery in 2023 was equally dramatic, with the stock soaring over 194% for the year, one of the best performances in the S&P 500. This rebound was fueled by Zuckerberg's 'Year of Efficiency,' which included laying off over 21,000 employees, a focus on AI-powered ad tools, and the launch of Threads. The stock crossed its previous all-time high in January 2024, a significant psychological and technical milestone. Weekly price movements during these periods were highly news-driven, with single-day swings of 10% or more following earnings reports in October 2022 and February 2023. This history of sharp reversals makes weekly price prediction a challenging but active area for market participants.
Meta's weekly stock performance matters because it serves as a real-time barometer for the health of the global digital advertising market, which exceeded $600 billion in 2023. As the world's second-largest digital ad platform, Meta's revenue trends signal broader economic conditions for millions of small businesses and marketers. A sustained decline in weekly closes could indicate softening advertiser demand, often a precursor to economic slowdowns. Conversely, consistent weekly gains can boost consumer and investor confidence in the tech sector. For investors, weekly price resolution directly impacts portfolio values, options market activity, and the performance of countless ETFs and mutual funds that hold Meta as a top-ten holding. The stock's volatility also affects the company's ability to use its shares as currency for acquisitions and employee compensation. Downstream, Meta's market capitalization influences its weighting in major indices, forcing passive funds to buy or sell billions of dollars worth of stock based on weekly price changes, creating self-reinforcing market movements.
As of early January 2024, Meta's stock is trading near all-time highs following its historic 2023 rally. The immediate focus for the week of January 12 is on macroeconomic indicators, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report scheduled for January 11, which will influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and overall market risk sentiment. There is no scheduled Meta-specific news or earnings during this resolution week, making the stock more susceptible to broader market movements and technical trading patterns. Analyst sentiment remains broadly positive but cautious, with many noting the stock's significant run-up and rich valuation. The company is expected to report Q4 2023 earnings in late January, so the week of January 12 may see positioning ahead of that event.
The Nasdaq stock exchange, where Meta trades under the ticker META, closes at 4:00 PM Eastern Time. The official closing price published immediately after this time is used for market resolution. For shortened sessions, such as those before holidays, the official close of that abbreviated session is used.
Meta has had no stock splits since its IPO in 2012. Therefore, the current share price is not adjusted for splits. All historical comparisons and weekly price brackets refer to the actual trading price per single share.
If a trading halt is in effect at the normal market close, the resolution will typically use the last available official price before the halt. Extended halts are rare, but exchange rules provide official procedures for determining a closing price in such scenarios, which would be used for resolution.
No, the official closing price is the price at the 4:00 PM ET regular session close. After-hours trading, which can be volatile due to earnings reports or news, does not change the official close for that day's resolution purposes.
The official closing price is published by Nasdaq on its website and market data feeds. Reputable financial data providers like Bloomberg, Refinitiv, and Yahoo Finance display this official close. It is also reported by major financial news outlets like CNBC and Reuters.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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11 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 33% |
| Poly | 29% |
| Poly | 6% |
| Poly | 5% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 0% |
| Poly | 0% |
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