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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

April Unemployment Rate

Name: April Unemployment Rate
End: 2026-05-08T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$42.12K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

April Unemployment Rate

Vol

$42.12K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $42.12K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $42.12K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	Poly	32%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Poly	27%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?	Poly	23%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	Poly	6%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?	Poly	4%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?	Poly	3%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?	Poly	3%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?	Poly	3%
Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

32%

Top Probability

$42.12K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the mon

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** April Unemployment Rate
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 8, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the mon

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.

The resolution source"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $42.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $25.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.69)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $9.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 8, 2026): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy