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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?

Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?
Vol

PM $29.7K

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Events

1

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Markets

3

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 60%.

Polymarket

  1. December 3160%
  2. November 3048%
  3. October 3114%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $29.7K

Reported volume · provider units

3

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Z.ai's next GLM model (5.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be part of Z.ai's core GLM series, have a name or model identifier that includes "GLM," and be designated as a version greater than 5.3, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version greater than 5.3 named in the same manner as GLM-5.2 or GLM-5.3 would qualify, including versions that skip numbers, such as GLM-5.5 or GLM-6, while models with a version designation of 5.3 or below, or derivative models not positioned as the next flagship GLM release, such as GLM-5.3-Turbo, will not qualify. Staged rollouts of a model already publicly accessible before market creation, such as the open-weight or API release of GLM-5.3, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Z.ai as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Z.ai, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketTech
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

PM $1.13M
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?Yes 94.4%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?Yes 78%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 19, 2026?Yes 66.5%
+7 moreNext deadline Oct 29, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiTech
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

PM $936.0K · K 14.6K contracts

Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?

Kalshi: Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before Dec 1, 2026?

Needs review

PM Yes 79.5%Review neededK Yes 19.5%

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?

Kalshi: Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2028?

Related contracts

PM Yes 63.5%Rules differK Yes 68.5%

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Kalshi: Will any AI lab solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 20.5%Rules differK Yes 24%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

3 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 7, 2026 UTC
KalshiCulture
Next Pirates of the Caribbean Movie: Cast

Next Pirates of the Caribbean Movie: Cast

K 947.7 contracts
Will Orlando Bloom be cast in The next feature-length film in the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise to be released by Walt Disney Studios after Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)?Yes 31%
Will Keira Knightley be cast in The next feature-length film in the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise to be released by Walt Disney Studios after Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)?Yes 22.5%
Will Margot Robbie be cast in The next feature-length film in the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise to be released by Walt Disney Studios after Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)?Yes 18%
+10 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2029 UTC
KalshiWorld
Houston vs Milwaukee: Threes

Houston vs Milwaukee: Threes

K 18.05 contracts
Jabari Smith Jr.: 1+ threesYes 84.5%
Kevin Durant: 1+ threesYes 82.5%
Ryan Rollins: 1+ threesYes 81.5%
+59 moreNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
KalshiWorld
Houston vs Milwaukee: Threes

Houston vs Milwaukee: Threes

K 0 contracts
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: 1+ threesYes 66.5%
Ryan Rollins: 2+ threesYes 60.5%
Tyler Herro: 3+ threesYes 57.5%
+59 moreNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
KalshiTech
Carolina vs Green Bay: Receptions

Carolina vs Green Bay: Receptions

K 15.7K contracts
Christian Watson: 2+ receptionsYes 92.5%
Tucker Kraft: 2+ receptionsYes 91.5%
Tetairoa McMillan: 3+ receptionsYes 89%
+70 moreNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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