Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Name: Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
End: 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$313.71K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

Vol

$313.71K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $313.71K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $313.71K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?	Poly	96%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Poly	72%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	Poly	63%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	Poly	41%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	Poly	17%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$313.71K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (82 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be des"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $229.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $23.1K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 9.97)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $111.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $10.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $35.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $28.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $20.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 6. Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 15, 2026): Vol $23.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech