This prediction market addresses whether a major volcanic eruption, specifically one registering 6 or higher on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), will occur anywhere on Earth before the end of 2026. The VEI is a logarithmic scale from 0 to 8 that measures the explosivity of volcanic eruptions based on factors like volume of erupted material and plume height. A VEI 6 event, classified as 'colossal,' ejects at least 10 cubic kilometers of tephra and can have global climatic impacts. The market's resolution will be determined by the Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program, the authoritative global database for volcanic activity. Interest in this market stems from both scientific forecasting of geological hazards and the significant societal and economic disruptions such a rare but high-impact event would cause. While major eruptions are infrequent, their potential for altering global climate patterns, disrupting agriculture, and affecting air travel makes them a subject of intense study and public concern. The period leading to 2026 is of particular note as scientists monitor several active and potentially restless volcanoes worldwide that have the geological capacity for such powerful eruptions.

Historical Context

The historical record of VEI 6 and larger eruptions provides crucial context for assessing the likelihood of such an event by 2026. The 20th and 21st centuries have witnessed only a handful of VEI 6 events. The most recent was the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, which ejected approximately 10 cubic kilometers of material and caused a global temperature drop of about 0.5 degrees Celsius for several years. Before that, the 1912 eruption of Novarupta in Alaska was the largest of the century, with a VEI of 6. The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa in Indonesia is another classic example, also rated VEI 6. The recurrence interval for eruptions of this magnitude is estimated by geologists to be on the order of 50 to 100 years globally. Since Pinatubo in 1991, over three decades have passed without a VEI 6 event, leading some researchers to note that the planet is within a window where another such eruption becomes statistically more probable. These historical events demonstrate a pattern of profound local devastation combined with measurable, if temporary, global climatic impacts from the injection of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere.

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