Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Name: Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
End: 2027-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$49.07K

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Markets

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Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $49.07K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $49.07K

100%

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1 market tracked

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?	Poly	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

11%

Top Probability

$49.07K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2027 (349 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institu"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $49.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $18.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.61)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2027): Vol $49.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

348d 5h remaining

Mar 31, 2027 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

11¢

Polymarket

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Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

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Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)