$6.07K
1
3
$6.07K
1
3
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This event is for the upcoming Serie B game, scheduled for Saturday, January 17, 2026 between SSC Bari and SS Juve Stabia.
Prediction markets currently assign a 38% probability to SS Juve Stabia securing an away victory against SSC Bari on January 17, 2026. This price, trading at 38¢ on Polymarket, indicates the market views a Juve Stabia win as the least likely of the three match outcomes. With the implied probability for a Bari win or a draw collectively at 62%, the consensus strongly favors the home side avoiding defeat. The thin trading volume of approximately $6,000, however, suggests this is a lightly-traded market where prices may be more sensitive to new information.
The primary factor is the significant disparity in league position and form typical of a Serie B relegation battle. SSC Bari, as the historic home side, is generally priced as the favorite in these fixtures, which is reflected in the market. Furthermore, historical head-to-head records and recent performance trends in Italy's second tier heavily influence these models. Markets also incorporate the fundamental advantage of playing at home, which affects team morale, travel fatigue, and fan support, all critical in tightly contested matches.
The odds are highly susceptible to last-minute team news, such as key player injuries or tactical lineup announcements, which typically emerge 24-48 hours before kickoff. A confirmed absence of a major attacking player for Bari, for example, could significantly narrow the probability gap. Given the low liquidity, even a modest influx of capital from bettors with private information could cause a sharp price movement. The market will resolve definitively based on the official match result on Saturday.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the upcoming Serie B football match between SSC Bari and SS Juve Stabia, scheduled for Saturday, January 17, 2026. Serie B is the second-highest division in the Italian football league system, and matches like this are crucial for teams aiming for promotion to Serie A or battling to avoid relegation. The outcome of this specific fixture will directly impact the league standings and the seasonal objectives of both clubs, making it a significant event for bettors, fans, and analysts who follow Italian football closely. The prediction market allows participants to trade shares based on their forecasts for the match result, creating a dynamic, crowd-sourced odds mechanism that reflects collective intelligence about the game's likely outcome. Interest in this market stems from the competitive nature of Serie B, where the margin between success and failure is often narrow, and individual matches can dramatically alter a team's trajectory. Recent form, squad news, and tactical setups will be heavily scrutinized in the lead-up to the game, as these factors are key inputs for anyone making a prediction. Furthermore, the historical rivalry and geographical proximity of the two clubs, both based in southern Italy, add an extra layer of intensity and interest to the fixture, potentially influencing team performance and fan engagement. This combination of sporting stakes and regional pride makes the match a compelling subject for prediction markets.
The history between these two clubs is rooted in the regional football landscape of Southern Italy. SSC Bari, founded in 1908, is one of the most historic clubs in Apulia and has experienced multiple periods in Serie A, most notably in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Their most recent Serie A stint ended in 2011. SS Juve Stabia, from Castellammare di Stabia in Campania, was founded in 1907 and has traditionally operated in the lower professional tiers, with Serie B being a significant achievement. The two clubs have not been frequent opponents in recent decades due to being in different divisions for long periods. Their most notable period of direct competition occurred in the early 2010s. During the 2011/12 Serie B season, both teams were in the division, with Bari finishing 14th and Juve Stabia finishing 21st and being relegated. Their head-to-head record that season saw Bari win 1-0 at home in December 2011, while the match in Castellammare di Stabia ended in a 1-1 draw in May 2012. This historical precedent, where Bari held a slight upper hand at home, may inform some market sentiment. Furthermore, both clubs have faced significant financial and organizational challenges in the intervening years, making their current stability and competitive presence in Serie B a point of pride for their respective fanbases.
Beyond the immediate three points, this match matters significantly for the economic and sporting trajectories of both clubs. Serie B operates with a substantial financial disparity compared to Serie A, where television rights and sponsorship revenues are exponentially higher. A successful season ending in promotion can transform a club's financial health, enabling larger player acquisitions and infrastructure investments. Conversely, a relegation battle can lead to austerity, player sales, and long-term rebuilding projects. For the local communities, these clubs are important social institutions. Match results influence civic pride and local business, with home games providing revenue for hospitality and retail sectors. A positive result, especially in a regional derby, can boost morale and engagement within the fanbase, leading to higher season ticket renewals and merchandise sales. The prediction market itself reflects a broader trend of data-driven sports analysis, where fan knowledge and financial interest intersect to create a liquid market for event outcomes.
As of the latest information prior to the January 17, 2026 fixture, both teams are engaged in their final training preparations. The Serie B winter transfer window is open, but no major last-minute squad changes impacting key players for this match have been reported. Team news regarding player fitness, particularly any injuries sustained during the busy holiday fixture period, will be closely monitored in the final 24-48 hours before kickoff. The latest league table positions and form from matches in early January will be the most immediate data points influencing market prices. Coaches are expected to hold final press conferences to provide updates on tactics and availability.
The Serie B match between SSC Bari and SS Juve Stabia is scheduled for Saturday, January 17, 2026. The exact kick-off time will be confirmed by the league closer to the date, but Serie B matches are typically played in the afternoon or early evening local time (CET).
In Italy, Serie B broadcasting rights are held by Sky Sport and DAZN. International viewers should check local sports broadcasting networks or streaming services that hold rights for Italian football leagues, such as ESPN or beIN Sports in various territories.
The Stadio San Nicola, home of SSC Bari, has an all-seater capacity of approximately 58,270 spectators. It was built for the 1990 FIFA World Cup and is known for its distinctive petal-like design.
Yes, SSC Bari has had multiple spells in Serie A, with their most recent season being 2010/11. SS Juve Stabia, however, has never played in Italy's top-flight Serie A, with Serie B representing their highest level of league competition.
Due to the limited number of historical meetings between the two clubs, there is no prominent all-time top scorer in this fixture. Historical records from their early 2010s encounters show goals were scored by a variety of players.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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3 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 38% |
| Poly | 33% |
| Poly | 29% |
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