This prediction market addresses whether any member state will formally withdraw from BRICS, the intergovernmental organization comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, by the end of 2026. The market resolves based on official notification of denunciation or withdrawal submitted to the bloc. The question emerges against a backdrop of significant geopolitical realignment and internal debates within member states about the bloc's strategic direction and benefits. Recent expansion of BRICS to include new members like Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates has intensified discussions about the organization's cohesion and the varying national interests of its constituents. Observers are interested in this topic because a departure would signal a major fracture in one of the most prominent non-Western economic and political alliances, potentially reshaping global diplomacy and economic partnerships. The possibility touches on core issues of sovereignty, economic dependency, and the practical value of multilateral forums in an increasingly polarized world.

Historical Context

BRICS was formally launched in 2009, building on the earlier BRIC concept coined by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill in 2001. The original four members (Brazil, Russia, India, China) were seen as rapidly developing economies with the potential to reshape the global economic order. South Africa joined in 2010, adding an African dimension. Historically, the bloc has focused on economic cooperation, reform of international financial institutions, and fostering a multipolar world. A key precedent for departure does not exist within the original BRICS, as no founding member has ever withdrawn. However, the historical context includes other multilateral organizations experiencing exits, such as the United Kingdom leaving the European Union in 2020, which demonstrated that geopolitical recalculation can lead to formal withdrawal from long-standing blocs. The bloc's evolution from a loose consultative forum to a more institutionalized entity with the New Development Bank, established in 2015, has deepened commitments, making a potential exit a more consequential legal and financial undertaking.

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