GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Paraíba Senate Election: 2nd Place

Name: Paraíba Senate Election: 2nd Place
End: 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$15.96K

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Markets

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Paraíba Senate Election: 2nd Place

Vol

$15.96K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $15.96K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $15.96K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will Veneziano win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Veneziano win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?	Poly	60%
Will Nabor win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?	Poly	25%
Will Joao Azevêdo win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?	Poly	8%
Will Dr. Marcelo Queiroga win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?	Poly	4%
Will Adriano Trajano win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?	Poly	4%
Will André Gadelha win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?	Poly	1%
Will Major Fábio win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?	Poly	1%
Will Rosilene Santana win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?	Poly	1%
Will Rinaldo Júnior win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will João Batista win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

60%

Top Probability

$15.96K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraíba is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidat

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Paraíba Senate Election: 2nd Place
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraíba is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidat

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraíba is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $16.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $53.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.30)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Adriano Trajano win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will André Gadelha win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $363
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Dr. Marcelo Queiroga win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $519
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.1% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Joao Azevêdo win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $425
  DATA: [Yes: 7.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will João Batista win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $370
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Major Fábio win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $339
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Nabor win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Rinaldo Júnior win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $276
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Rosilene Santana win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $313
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Veneziano win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $8.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics