Name: China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q1 2026?
End: 2026-04-17T00:00:00.000Z

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China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q1 2026? | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $253.77K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $253.77K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?	Poly	69%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?	Poly	26%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%?	Poly	5%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.5%?	Poly	2%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 6.0%?	Poly	0%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.5 and 4.0%?	Poly	0%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 3.5%?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

69%

Top Probability

$253.77K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is s

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, April 8, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q1 2026?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 17, 2026 (9 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is s

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $253.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $27.3K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 9.29)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.5 and 4.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2026): Vol $57.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2026): Vol $39.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2026): Vol $24.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2026): Vol $25.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 68.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2026): Vol $61.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 6.0%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2026): Vol $26.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 3.5%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 17, 2026): Vol $20.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy