$29.50K
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7
$29.50K
1
7
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This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is s
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on China's year-over-year GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2026. The market will resolve based on the official 'Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP' published by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on or around April 17, 2026. The reported percentage will determine which bracket the market settles into. China's quarterly GDP figures are a primary indicator of economic health for the world's second-largest economy, influencing global markets, commodity prices, and monetary policy worldwide. The Q1 2026 data will be particularly scrutinized as it follows several years of economic recalibration following the COVID-19 pandemic and represents progress toward China's stated long-term development goals. Analysts, investors, and policymakers track this data to gauge the effectiveness of government stimulus, the stability of the property sector, and the strength of consumer demand. The interest in this specific quarter stems from its position within China's 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) and the early stages of the subsequent 15th Five-Year Plan, making it a benchmark for the economy's trajectory in the latter half of the 2020s.
China's GDP growth has undergone a significant structural slowdown over the past decade. After averaging nearly 10% annual growth from 1980 to 2010, the economy entered a 'new normal' of lower, more sustainable expansion. The government's official growth target for 2023 was around 5%, a marked reduction from the double-digit figures common in the 2000s. The COVID-19 pandemic caused severe disruption, with GDP contracting by 6.8% year-over-year in Q1 2020, the first quarterly contraction since records began in 1992. The subsequent recovery has been uneven, hampered by a protracted property sector crisis that began with defaults by major developers like Evergrande in 2021, and by intermittent pandemic lockdowns under the now-abandoned 'zero-COVID' policy. Historically, Q1 data can be volatile due to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday, which affects production and consumption. The 2026 figure will be interpreted within this context of managed deceleration, property market stabilization efforts, and a strategic shift toward technology and domestic consumption as growth drivers.
China's GDP growth rate is a bellwether for the global economy. As the largest trading partner for over 120 countries, a slowdown in Chinese demand directly impacts exporters of commodities, manufactured goods, and luxury items worldwide. The Q1 2026 figure will influence investment decisions, currency valuations, and central bank policies from Frankfurt to Washington. Domestically, the growth rate is tied to social stability. The Chinese Communist Party has historically linked its legitimacy to delivering consistent economic improvement. Meeting or missing growth expectations can affect policy direction, with implications for employment, household income, and business confidence. A significantly lower-than-expected figure could trigger more aggressive stimulus, while a higher figure might allow policymakers to focus on reducing financial risks or advancing structural reforms.
As of early 2024, China's economy is navigating a complex recovery. Policymakers are deploying moderate fiscal and monetary stimulus to counter deflationary pressures and weak consumer confidence, particularly in the wake of the property market correction. The government emphasizes a policy mix dubbed 'high-quality development,' focusing on technological self-reliance and advanced manufacturing. The immediate focus is on achieving the 'around 5%' growth target for 2024. The performance in the latter half of 2024 and throughout 2025 will set the stage for the economic conditions entering Q1 2026.
The accuracy of China's official GDP data is debated by economists. The National Bureau of Statistics follows international standards, but some analysts point to historical smoothing of volatility and discrepancies with alternative indicators like electricity consumption or satellite data. Most international institutions, however, use the NBS data as the primary benchmark.
Year-over-year (Y/Y) growth compares a quarter's economic output to the same quarter in the previous year, smoothing out seasonal effects like the Lunar New Year. Quarter-on-quarter (Q/Q) growth compares output to the immediately preceding quarter, showing more recent momentum but requiring seasonal adjustment. This market resolves based on the Y/Y figure.
Key influences include government infrastructure spending, credit growth from state banks, export performance, domestic retail sales, and activity in the real estate sector. Policy announcements from the Politburo and State Council in the preceding months are also critical drivers of economic direction.
The National Bureau of Statistics typically releases the preliminary estimate for a quarter's GDP about two to three weeks after the quarter ends. For Q1, this usually falls between April 15 and April 20. The exact date is announced shortly beforehand.
Slower growth in China reduces demand for US exports like agricultural products, aircraft, and semiconductors. It can also contribute to global commodity price declines, affecting US energy and mining companies. Conversely, strong Chinese growth can boost revenues for multinational corporations with significant operations in China.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
7 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 86% |
| Poly | 8% |
| Poly | 6% |
| Poly | 0% |
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