$3.72K
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$3.72K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Next Secretary of State If Secretary of State is X before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Acting and Interim positions don't count. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently price a 56% probability that "No other person" will become Donald Trump's next Secretary of State if he wins the 2024 presidential election. This means the market sees it as slightly more likely than not that the role will be filled by someone not listed in the specific alternative markets, which include names like Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley. With only $4,000 in total volume, this is a thin, speculative market, indicating low-confidence trading rather than a strong consensus.
The primary factor is the significant uncertainty surrounding a potential Trump cabinet. The "No other person" contract acts as a catch-all for candidates not explicitly listed, and its leading position reflects the market's view that Trump may select a dark horse or loyalist from outside his previous cabinet. Historical precedent is a key driver: Trump's first-term Secretary of State appointment shifted from Rex Tillerson to Mike Pompeo, demonstrating his willingness to change personnel. Current political dynamics also play a role, as figures like Pompeo or Haley may have complex relationships with Trump, making their appointment less certain than outsiders assume.
The odds will remain highly volatile until the election is decided and the presidential transition begins. A clear Trump victory in November 2024 would be the major catalyst, immediately shifting focus to his personnel announcements and likely causing dramatic price swings in specific candidate markets. Key risk to the current "No other person" consensus would be definitive signals from Trump's inner circle, such as a reported frontrunner emerging in major news outlets. Conversely, odds for "No other person" could solidify if Trump makes public comments suggesting he seeks a fresh face or a figure known primarily for loyalty over traditional foreign policy credentials.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on who will serve as the next United States Secretary of State during a potential second term for former President Donald Trump, should he win the 2024 presidential election. The market resolves to 'Yes' if a specific individual, designated as 'X', is confirmed as Secretary of State before January 20, 2029. Acting or interim appointments do not count. The topic has gained significant attention as political analysts and foreign policy experts speculate on the future direction of American diplomacy under a Trump administration. The selection is viewed as a critical indicator of foreign policy priorities, ranging from a continuation of the 'America First' agenda to potential shifts in relations with allies and adversaries. Recent developments, including Trump's public statements and the evolving geopolitical landscape, have fueled speculation and debate. Interest in this market stems from its implications for global stability, trade relationships, and the United States' role in international institutions and conflicts.
The role of Secretary of State is a Cabinet-level position established in 1789, heading the U.S. Department of State and serving as the President's chief foreign affairs adviser. Historically, appointments have ranged from esteemed politicians like Henry Kissinger to close confidants of the president. In recent decades, the trend has included senators, ambassadors, and national security officials. Donald Trump's first term set notable precedents relevant to this prediction. His initial appointee in 2017 was Rex Tillerson, former CEO of ExxonMobil, marking a choice based on corporate leadership rather than political or diplomatic experience. Tillerson's tenure was marked by public policy disagreements with the President and he was dismissed via tweet in March 2018. He was replaced by Mike Pompeo, then CIA Director, who represented a shift toward a politically loyalist figure. Pompeo served for the remainder of the term, overseeing a foreign policy defined by unilateral actions, withdrawal from international agreements, and a focus on great power competition with China. This history suggests a second-term appointment would weigh loyalty and a proven alignment with Trump's worldview heavily against traditional diplomatic credentials.
The appointment of a Secretary of State has profound implications for global geopolitics and the domestic political landscape. It directly shapes international alliances, trade negotiations, security partnerships, and the U.S. response to conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific. A selection signaling a return to a more conventional, alliance-focused diplomacy could reassure European and Asian partners, while a choice favoring a more disruptive, unilateral 'America First' posture could further strain those relationships and empower adversarial nations like China and Russia. Domestically, the selection is a key early signal of a potential Trump administration's governing priorities and operational style. It affects the morale and direction of the professional foreign service corps at the State Department. Furthermore, the confirmation process in the U.S. Senate serves as a high-profile political battle, testing the Senate's balance of power and setting the tone for executive-legislative relations. The outcome influences global markets, energy security, and international efforts on climate change and non-proliferation.
As of late 2024, Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for the November presidential election. No official shortlist for a second-term cabinet has been released by his campaign. However, media reports and insider accounts consistently mention former officials like Mike Pompeo and Robert O'Brien as likely candidates for top national security posts. Trump himself has made general comments about wanting 'fighters' and loyal people in his cabinet but has not specified names for State. The speculation is largely based on his past working relationships, public statements of support from potential candidates, and analysis of his first-term hiring patterns. The outcome of the election on November 5, 2024, is the primary determinant for whether this prediction market becomes active.
While legally possible, it is highly improbable. The Secretary of State requires Senate confirmation, and appointing himself would be an unprecedented move conflating the executive and cabinet roles. It would likely face significant constitutional and political challenges.
The President's nominee must be confirmed by a simple majority vote in the United States Senate. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee first holds hearings and votes on whether to recommend the nominee to the full Senate.
Rex Tillerson was dismissed by President Trump in March 2018 after a tenure marked by policy disagreements and reported tensions. He was informed of his firing via a tweet from the President, an unusual and public method of removal for a Cabinet official.
Cordell Hull served as Secretary of State for nearly 11 years under President Franklin D. Roosevelt from 1933 to 1944. This contrasts sharply with the turnover seen in recent administrations.
There are no legal requirements for specific experience. Historically, appointees have had backgrounds in law, politics, the military, or business. Recent examples include former generals, senators, and corporate CEOs.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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5 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State? (No other person) | Kalshi | 56% |
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State? (Ric Grenell) | Kalshi | 18% |
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State? (Robert O'Brien) | Kalshi | 15% |
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State? (Bill Hagerty) | Kalshi | 7% |
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of State? (Mike Waltz) | Kalshi | 2% |
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